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Monday, October 12, 2026 — Picks and Results
Lifetime: 78–67–2 · 53.79% wins · +71.45 units profit · 4.93% ROI.
148 total = 147 settled + 0 pending + 1 void. Wagered win/loss risk: 1,450 units; refunded pushes and voids are excluded. Pending risk: 0 units. 2 recorded picks on 2026-10-12.
Results refreshed 10/13/2026, 4:18:33 AM ET. Strategy v1.0.2 unchanged during this refresh.
Monday Picks — October 12
2 qualifying straight bets. 8 slots remain open because other current prices failed the edge gate or lacked adequate model support. No quota was forced and the picks are from separate games.
| Game / Pick | Start | Odds / Source | Probability | $10 pretend position | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils Ottawa Senators ML | 7:00 PM ET | +114 Dimers public odds comparison (book not identified) Source | Estimate 49.70% Break-even 46.73% Edge 2.97 pp | 10 units risk Win +11.40 units Estimated EV +0.64 units Moderate research | Won · New Jersey Devils 1 — Ottawa Senators 4 +11.40 units |
| Rationale: Dimers lists Ottawa at +114 with a conservative 49.7% win estimate, above the 46.73% break-even rate. Separate public models also favored Ottawa, but the locked probability remains the lower Dimers figure. Goaltender confirmation remains a material pregame risk. Estimated EV 0.64 units per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem. | |||||
| Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Under 54.5 | 8:15 PM ET | -102 Dimers model / DraftKings price reported by OregonLive Source | Estimate 53.50% Break-even 50.50% Edge 3.00 pp | 10 units risk Win +9.80 units Estimated EV +0.60 units Moderate research / tightened totals gate | Lost · Los Angeles Rams 34 — Buffalo Bills 37 −10.00 units |
| Rationale: Dimers estimates the Under at 53.5% against a 50.50% break-even rate at DraftKings -102, clearing the new 3.0-point totals gate by 3.00 points. The high posted total supplies line cushion, but both offenses create substantial tail risk. Estimated EV 0.60 units per $10 risk. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result. | |||||
Sunday Results — October 11 · 2–3 · -13.79 units
| Pick | Final | Locked odds | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Under 44.5 | Lost · Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — Indianapolis Colts 22 | -115 | -10.00 units |
| Rationale: NFL injury roundup lists Colts receivers Dulin and Slayton and Steelers receiver Pittman out; defensive absences also create countervailing scoring risk. The external model edge is 8.81 pp and remains unvalidated. This Under qualifies on its own price, not as a reaction to Saturday Overs. Estimated EV 1.65 per $10 risk. Post-pick: Flawed probability estimate / matchup error under review. The 62.3% external Under estimate missed a 56-point final by 11.5 points. One game cannot establish cause, but it adds to the lifetime totals-market calibration warning. Adjustment: Strategy v1.0.2 begins October 12: totals now require at least a 3.0-point estimated edge plus current matchup, availability or conditions corroboration. Fixed $10 risk; no loss chasing. | |||
| 🟢 Jets ML | Won · New York Jets 17 — Cleveland Browns 12 | -133 | +7.52 units |
| Rationale: Browns defensive-line absences may favor Jets rushing; Jets RB Breece Hall and WR Adonai Mitchell are also out. The 2.92 pp external model edge is modest. Exact quote book and separate book timestamp are not exposed; this is a comparison-source paper lock. Estimated EV 0.51 per $10 risk. Post-pick: Potential misleading win / ordinary variance. The Jets won 17–12, but one correct -133 moneyline does not validate the external 60.0% estimate or justify shorter prices. Adjustment: Preserve the locked win and price. Strategy v1.0.2 keeps the fixed $10 stake and still rejects short favorites without unusual supported value. | |||
| 🟢 San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | Won · Seattle Seahawks 29 — San Francisco 49ers 32 | -115 | +8.70 units |
| Rationale: Dimers estimates a 60.8% cover probability against a 53.49% price break-even. San Francisco remains without Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk, while Seattle ruled out Zach Charbonnet and two defenders; Seattle confirmed Leonard Williams is available. The injury evidence is official and current, but the probability remains an unvalidated external estimate. Estimated EV 1.37 per $10 risk. Post-pick: Ordinary variance with a favorable price outcome. San Francisco won outright after taking +3.5, but the single result is not proof that the estimated 60.8% cover probability was calibrated. Adjustment: No side-weight increase. Strategy v1.0.2 changes only the totals entry gate; spreads retain the existing value, availability and correlation checks. | |||
| 🔴 Under 41.5 | Lost · Washington Commanders 27 — New York Giants 27 | -102 | -10.00 units |
| Rationale: Dimers estimates a 58.6% under probability against a 50.50% price break-even. Washington ruled out Stefon Diggs and listed Terry McLaurin questionable; the current forecast calls for rain during the game. New York and Washington also have defensive absences, so this is a moderate-confidence price edge rather than a guarantee. Estimated EV 1.61 per $10 risk. Post-pick: Flawed probability estimate / matchup error under review. The game produced 54 points against a 41.5 Under despite a recorded 58.6% estimate. Together with the Colts–Steelers miss and a 37-bet totals record below break-even, this supports a prospective—not retroactive—totals filter. Adjustment: Strategy v1.0.2 begins October 12: totals require at least a 3.0-point estimated edge plus contextual corroboration, with no stake increase or attempt to recover losses. | |||
| 🔴 Los Angeles Dodgers ML | Lost · Milwaukee Brewers 2 — Los Angeles Dodgers 1 | -104 | -10.00 units |
| Rationale: Dimers estimates a 56.7% Dodgers win probability against a 50.98% break-even rate at -104. MLB confirmed Tarik Skubal versus Jacob Misiorowski and published both starting lineups; Los Angeles added Justin Wrobleski to the NLCS roster and removed Hyeseong Kim. The estimate is external and unvalidated. Estimated EV 1.12 per $10 risk. Post-pick: Ordinary variance / potential bad-price review. Milwaukee won 2–1, so the Dodgers -104 lost. The result alone does not prove the 56.7% external estimate was wrong, but it reinforces the need to avoid treating model output as independently validated. Adjustment: Strategy v1.0.2 preserves moneyline rules and the fixed $10 stake. No retrospective probability change and no chase position in Game 2. | |||
Improvement Trend Scorecard
Current / previous 7-day cohorts: 2026-10-07–2026-10-13 / 2026-09-30–2026-10-06. Current / previous 10-day cohorts: 2026-10-04–2026-10-13 / 2026-09-24–2026-10-03. Uses selection dates and settled bets; full settlement-date history is unavailable.
| Metric | 7-day current / prior | Direction | 10-day current / prior | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Settled win rate | 45.83% / 60.00% | Declining | 50.00% / 56.47% | Insufficient sample |
| Profit | −56.30 units / +86.87 units | Declining | −18.32 units / +89.77 units | Insufficient sample |
| ROI | -11.73% / 15.80% | Declining | -3.05% / 10.56% | Insufficient sample |
| Average estimated edge | 3.70% / 3.33% | Improving | 3.53% / 3.09% | Insufficient sample |
| Brier error (lower is better) | 0.2600 / 0.2386 | Declining | 0.2562 / 0.2430 | Insufficient sample |
| Closing-line value | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable / Unavailable | Insufficient sample |
| Maximum drawdown | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable / Unavailable | Insufficient sample |
7-day: Declining — win rate, profit, ROI and Brier forecast error worsened despite higher recorded edge. 10-day: Insufficient sample — the prior comparison window begins before complete ledger history. Favorable variance is not treated as process improvement. Closing-line value and chronological maximum drawdown remain unavailable.
Strategy v1.0.2
Totals now require at least 3.0 percentage points of estimated edge plus current contextual corroboration. Stakes remain fixed at $10; spreads and moneylines retain v1.0.1 rules. The evidence is the 37-bet totals sample: 18–19, -22.23 units and -6.01% ROI despite 3.45 pp of average recorded edge. This is a modest prospective filter, not a guarantee or a retrospective rewrite.
Morning Audit — PARTIAL
10/12/2026, 7:25:18 AM ET. IDs, stakes, schedules, break-even/edge arithmetic, duplicate selections, locked odds, settlement totals and league totals including WNBA were reconciled in source. Current production readback follows publication; closing lines and complete settlement chronology remain unavailable.
Updated Excel and PDF reports · Complete performance details · Independent audit
Pretend wagers only. No wager was placed; no outcome is guaranteed.