{
  "date": "2026-10-12",
  "updated": "2026-10-13T08:18:32.584Z",
  "audit": "PARTIAL",
  "auditTimestamp": "10/13/2026, 4:18:33 AM ET",
  "newUniquePicks": 2,
  "newUniqueIds": [
    147,
    148
  ],
  "previousTotal": 146,
  "total": 148,
  "settled": 147,
  "wins": 78,
  "losses": 67,
  "pushes": 2,
  "pending": 0,
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  "winRate": 0.5379310344827586,
  "roi": 0.04927827877924463,
  "winPct": 0.5379310344827586,
  "todayCard": [
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  "dailyRisk": 20,
  "dailyPendingRisk": 0,
  "dailyResults": {
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  "remainingSlots": 8,
  "newlySettledThisRun": 1,
  "priorResults": {
    "date": "2026-10-11",
    "total": 5,
    "settled": 5,
    "wins": 2,
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  "rankedCandidates": [
    {
      "id": 148,
      "rank": 1,
      "edgeScore": 3,
      "edge": 0.030049504950495076,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score is the recorded estimate minus American-odds break-even probability; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    },
    {
      "id": 147,
      "rank": 2,
      "edgeScore": 2.97,
      "edge": 0.029710280373831777,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score is the recorded estimate minus American-odds break-even probability; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    }
  ],
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": 147,
      "event": "Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "Ottawa Senators ML",
      "odds": 114,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.497,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.4672897196261682,
      "edge": 0.029710280373831777,
      "confidence": "Moderate research",
      "start": "2026-10-12T23:00:00Z",
      "eventId": "401892486",
      "source": "ESPN official schedule; Dimers public odds comparison (book not identified)",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892486/senators-devils",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/nhl/predictions/2026_14_nj_ott",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-12T11:19:02.930Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": null,
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-12T11:19:02.930Z",
      "modelSource": "External published probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": 114,
      "line": null,
      "possibleWinProfit": 11.4,
      "expectedProfit": 0.6357999999999997,
      "availabilityStatus": "Public NHL schedule and current matchup pricing reviewed; final starting goaltenders were not independently confirmed at lock.",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-12T11:19:02.930Z",
      "result": "Won · New Jersey Devils 1 — Ottawa Senators 4",
      "profit": 11.4,
      "rationale": "Dimers lists Ottawa at +114 with a conservative 49.7% win estimate, above the 46.73% break-even rate. Separate public models also favored Ottawa, but the locked probability remains the lower Dimers figure. Goaltender confirmation remains a material pregame risk. Estimated EV 0.64 units per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 148,
      "event": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
      "market": "Total",
      "selection": "Under 54.5",
      "odds": -102,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.535,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.504950495049505,
      "edge": 0.030049504950495076,
      "confidence": "Moderate research / tightened totals gate",
      "start": "2026-10-13T00:15:00Z",
      "eventId": "401872994",
      "source": "ESPN official schedule; Dimers model / DraftKings price reported by OregonLive",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401872994/bills-rams",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.oregonlive.com/betting/2026/10/experts-release-final-bills-vs-rams-predictions-picks-and-best-bets-for-week-5-monday-night-football.html",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-12T11:19:02.930Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": null,
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-12T11:19:02.930Z",
      "modelSource": "External published probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": -102,
      "line": 54.5,
      "possibleWinProfit": 9.803921568627452,
      "expectedProfit": 0.5950980392156877,
      "availabilityStatus": "Current game schedule, price and matchup reporting reviewed. Late inactive information was not yet final at lock.",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-12T11:19:02.930Z",
      "result": "Lost · Los Angeles Rams 34 — Buffalo Bills 37",
      "profit": -10,
      "rationale": "Dimers estimates the Under at 53.5% against a 50.50% break-even rate at DraftKings -102, clearing the new 3.0-point totals gate by 3.00 points. The high posted total supplies line cushion, but both offenses create substantial tail risk. Estimated EV 0.60 units per $10 risk. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    }
  ],
  "postmortems": [
    {
      "id": 142,
      "selection": "Under 44.5",
      "result": "Lost · Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — Indianapolis Colts 22",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate / matchup error under review. The 62.3% external Under estimate missed a 56-point final by 11.5 points. One game cannot establish cause, but it adds to the lifetime totals-market calibration warning.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 begins October 12: totals now require at least a 3.0-point estimated edge plus current matchup, availability or conditions corroboration. Fixed $10 risk; no loss chasing."
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "selection": "Jets ML",
      "result": "Won · New York Jets 17 — Cleveland Browns 12",
      "profit": 7.518796992481203,
      "analysis": " Potential misleading win / ordinary variance. The Jets won 17–12, but one correct -133 moneyline does not validate the external 60.0% estimate or justify shorter prices.",
      "adjustment": "Preserve the locked win and price. Strategy v1.0.2 keeps the fixed $10 stake and still rejects short favorites without unusual supported value."
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "selection": "San Francisco 49ers +3.5",
      "result": "Won · Seattle Seahawks 29 — San Francisco 49ers 32",
      "profit": 8.695652173913043,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance with a favorable price outcome. San Francisco won outright after taking +3.5, but the single result is not proof that the estimated 60.8% cover probability was calibrated.",
      "adjustment": "No side-weight increase. Strategy v1.0.2 changes only the totals entry gate; spreads retain the existing value, availability and correlation checks."
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "selection": "Under 41.5",
      "result": "Lost · Washington Commanders 27 — New York Giants 27",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate / matchup error under review. The game produced 54 points against a 41.5 Under despite a recorded 58.6% estimate. Together with the Colts–Steelers miss and a 37-bet totals record below break-even, this supports a prospective—not retroactive—totals filter.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 begins October 12: totals require at least a 3.0-point estimated edge plus contextual corroboration, with no stake increase or attempt to recover losses."
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "selection": "Los Angeles Dodgers ML",
      "result": "Lost · Milwaukee Brewers 2 — Los Angeles Dodgers 1",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance / potential bad-price review. Milwaukee won 2–1, so the Dodgers -104 lost. The result alone does not prove the 56.7% external estimate was wrong, but it reinforces the need to avoid treating model output as independently validated.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 preserves moneyline rules and the fixed $10 stake. No retrospective probability change and no chase position in Game 2."
    },
    {
      "id": 147,
      "selection": "Ottawa Senators ML",
      "result": "Won · New Jersey Devils 1 — Ottawa Senators 4",
      "profit": 11.4,
      "analysis": " final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 148,
      "selection": "Under 54.5",
      "result": "Lost · Los Angeles Rams 34 — Buffalo Bills 37",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    }
  ],
  "leagueTotals": {
    "NCAA FBS": {
      "total": 75,
      "settled": 75,
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      "total": 13,
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    "NHL": {
      "total": 18,
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  "performance": {
    "bySport": {
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      "Baseball": {
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      "Hockey": {
        "total": 18,
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    "byLeague": {
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      "NFL": {
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      "WNBA": {
        "total": 3,
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      "NHL": {
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    },
    "byMarket": {
      "Moneyline": {
        "total": 32,
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        "wins": 16,
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        "risk": 320,
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      "Total": {
        "total": 45,
        "settled": 44,
        "wins": 22,
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      "Spread": {
        "total": 71,
        "settled": 71,
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    },
    "byOddsBand": {
      "+100 to +200": {
        "total": 24,
        "settled": 24,
        "wins": 11,
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      "-150 to -101": {
        "total": 116,
        "settled": 115,
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      "+201 to +350": {
        "total": 4,
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        "risk": 40,
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      "Below -150": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 3,
        "losses": 1,
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    },
    "byConfidence": {
      "Unrecorded": {
        "total": 86,
        "settled": 86,
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      "Higher": {
        "total": 13,
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      "Medium": {
        "total": 22,
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      "Moderate research": {
        "total": 17,
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      "Low / higher upside": {
        "total": 2,
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      "Moderate / high price": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Moderate / correlated": {
        "total": 4,
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      "Low / marginal positive edge": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Low research": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Moderate research / tightened totals gate": {
        "total": 1,
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    },
    "bySource": {
      "Recorded card": {
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      "FanDuel": {
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      "VegasInsider early Week 4 market": {
        "total": 10,
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      "Bovada / EVAnalytics current market": {
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      "Bovada current market": {
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      "BetMGM current market": {
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      "Leans.ai current market": {
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        "risk": 10,
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        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
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      "VegasInsider best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
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      },
      "ScoresAndOdds best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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      "Action Network best price, Oct. 1": {
        "total": 10,
        "settled": 10,
        "wins": 4,
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        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 100,
        "profit": -21.06147186147186,
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      "FanDuel Research, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.803921568627452,
        "winRate": 1,
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      },
      "Sportsgambler, updated Oct. 1 1:02 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.474576271186441,
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      "Consensus / Statsalt, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 0,
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        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": 18.181818181818183,
        "winRate": 1,
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      },
      "Action Network, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.615384615384615,
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      "Action Network best market, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
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        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -0.7407407407407405,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.03703703703703702
      },
      "FanDuel Research, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
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      },
      "Action Network consensus, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.174311926605505,
        "winRate": 1,
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      "Consensus market, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
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        "wins": 0,
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        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 20,
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      },
      "FanDuel / consensus, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
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      },
      "Leans.ai live odds, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 8,
        "settled": 8,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 3,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 70,
        "profit": 7.1856806639415325,
        "winRate": 0.5714285714285714,
        "roi": 0.10265258091345046
      },
      "Consensus live market, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
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      },
      "Action Network live odds, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "FanDuel, Oct. 5, 8:11 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 3,
        "settled": 3,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 30,
        "profit": 9.695652173913043,
        "winRate": 0.6666666666666666,
        "roi": 0.32318840579710145
      },
      "Caesars via AgentBets, Oct. 6, 1:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.3,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 1.03
      },
      "BetMGM via AgentBets, Oct. 5, 10:00 p.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 0,
        "profit": 0,
        "winRate": null,
        "roi": null
      },
      "Covers best available, Oct. 6, 8:35 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 8,
        "settled": 8,
        "wins": 5,
        "losses": 3,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 80,
        "profit": 17.98774878774879,
        "winRate": 0.625,
        "roi": 0.22484685984685987
      },
      "Bovada consensus, Oct. 7, 8:00 a.m. UTC": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 7.142857142857143,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.7142857142857143
      },
      "EVAnalytics consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
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      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 1:13 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "VegasInsider consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 0,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 0,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "winRate": null,
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      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 12:43 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "SportsBet consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 5.9523809523809526,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.5952380952380952
      },
      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Pinnacle via AgentBets, updated Oct. 7, 6:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.849557522123893,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.8849557522123893
      },
      "FanDuel market, Oct. 7, 4:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.615384615384615,
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      },
      "numberFire / recorded research": {
        "total": 3,
        "settled": 3,
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        "risk": 30,
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      },
      "SportsCapping consensus, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
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        "profit": -1.304347826086957,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.06521739130434785
      },
      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
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      "Dimers / recorded research": {
        "total": 32,
        "settled": 32,
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    },
    "byStrategyVersion": {
      "Unrecorded": {
        "total": 86,
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      "v1.0 market + matchup": {
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      "v1.0 + numberFire": {
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      "v1.0 pitching + market": {
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      "v1.0 pitching + price + line move": {
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      "v1.0 pitching + park + price": {
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      "v1.0 pace + price": {
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      "v1.0 form + total price": {
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      "v1.0 efficiency + roster + price": {
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      "v1.0 form + roster + price": {
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      "v1.0 recent offense + price": {
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      "v1.0 defense + recent form": {
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      "v1.0 roster gap + price": {
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      "v1.0 recent scoring + lineup review": {
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      "v1.0.1: market/price, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement": {
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      "v1.0.1: price/value, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement": {
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      "v1.0.2: price/value, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement; totals require at least 3.0 pp edge plus contextual corroboration": {
        "total": 2,
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  },
  "trends": {
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      "end": "2026-10-13",
      "previousStart": "2026-09-30",
      "previousEnd": "2026-10-06",
      "current": {
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      "sampleStatus": "comparison available",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Declining",
        "profit": "Declining",
        "roi": "Declining",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Improving",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Declining",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Unavailable",
        "maxDrawdown": "Unavailable"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Mixed descriptive signals; no confirmed process improvement"
    },
    "current10": {
      "start": "2026-10-04",
      "end": "2026-10-13",
      "previousStart": "2026-09-24",
      "previousEnd": "2026-10-03",
      "current": {
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      "previous": {
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      "sampleStatus": "insufficient sample",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Insufficient sample",
        "profit": "Insufficient sample",
        "roi": "Insufficient sample",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Insufficient sample",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Insufficient sample",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Insufficient sample",
        "maxDrawdown": "Insufficient sample"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Insufficient sample"
    }
  },
  "calibration": {
    "lifetime": {
      "sample": 125,
      "value": 0.06705925599999993,
      "method": "Ten fixed probability bins, width 0.10; weighted absolute forecast-vs-outcome gap. Small-sample descriptive estimate, not validated calibration."
    },
    "current7": {
      "sample": 48,
      "value": 0.1787376458333334,
      "method": "Ten fixed probability bins, width 0.10; weighted absolute forecast-vs-outcome gap. Small-sample descriptive estimate, not validated calibration."
    },
    "current10": {
      "sample": 67,
      "value": 0.1044687611940299,
      "method": "Weighted absolute gap in ten fixed probability bins; descriptive and sample-sensitive."
    },
    "note": "Brier error measures forecast error; fixed-bin gaps are descriptive. Neither proves an edge."
  },
  "strategy": "v1.0.2",
  "strategyNote": "Totals now require at least 3.0 percentage points of estimated edge plus current contextual corroboration. Stakes remain fixed at $10; spreads and moneylines retain v1.0.1 rules.",
  "method": "Screen approved game-level straight markets for price-adjusted value, current schedule and availability context; require at least a 2.0-point edge, with the new 3.0-point totals gate. No independent superiority claim.",
  "unresolved": [
    "Desktop/mobile visual rendering and device interactions",
    "Every older final independently re-verified against fresh authoritative records",
    "Historical locked-price provenance and recorded-probability model validity",
    "Closing-line metrics: no verified closing prices",
    "Chronological maximum drawdown: missing complete settlement timestamps",
    "Live production forecast endpoint and scoreboard DOM readback"
  ],
  "disclaimer": "Pretend wagers only. No wager was placed. Results are not guaranteed.",
  "notes": [
    "ROI denominator is settled win/loss stakes; pushes, voids and pending stakes are excluded.",
    "Rolling cohorts use selection dates because complete settlement timestamps are unavailable.",
    "Only two early-board markets met the documented gates; no return-tier quota was forced."
  ],
  "checks": {
    "uniqueIds": true,
    "totalReconciliation": true,
    "recordReconciliation": true,
    "leagueReconciliation": true,
    "profitAtLockedOdds": true,
    "routesAndAssets": true,
    "mobileSourceCoverage": true,
    "previousTotalPlusNewUniqueIds": true,
    "immutableRecordedFields": true,
    "allPreviouslyPendingFinalsVerified": true,
    "reverifiedFinalsAtLockedOdds": true,
    "nativeSettlementPaginationComplete": true,
    "nativeSettlementsMatchLockedRecords": true,
    "apiHistoryHandlerAgainstCompleteNativeSnapshot": true,
    "proofSavedSnapshot": true,
    "resultsScorecardMath": true,
    "currentAndLastSelectionDates": true,
    "allHistoryAndDailySummaryCalculations": true,
    "currentResultsTitleSelectionDate": true,
    "lastResultsTitleSelectionDate": true,
    "infographicsChartTotals": true,
    "mainMenuMetricsAndButtonDates": true,
    "leagueRadarsIncludingWNBA": true,
    "fullHistoryReportSummary": true,
    "liveScoreFinalSummarySource": true,
    "liveLeadsNeverCountAsFinalSource": true,
    "liveEstimatesComplete": true,
    "liveEstimatesIntegrity": true
  },
  "versionLog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-12",
      "version": "v1.0.2",
      "change": "Prospective totals gate tightened to 3.0 pp plus corroboration; stakes unchanged.",
      "evidence": "37 settled totals: 18-19, -22.23 units, -6.01% ROI, while recorded edge averaged 3.45 pp."
    }
  ]
}