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Sunday, October 11, 2026 — Picks and Results
Lifetime: 77–66–2 · 53.85% wins · +70.05 units profit · 4.90% ROI.
146 total = 145 settled + 0 pending + 1 void. Wagered win/loss risk: 1,430 units; refunded pushes and voids are excluded. Pending risk: 0 units. 5 recorded picks on 2026-10-11.
Results refreshed 10/12/2026, 4:24:00 AM ET. Strategy v1.0.1 unchanged.
Sunday Picks — October 11
5 qualifying straight bets. 5 slots remain open because sufficient current price, model or lineup support was unavailable. There is no forced quota. The selections use independent games. Estimates are external Dimers research, not a validated proprietary Captain Sparkles model.
| Game / Pick | Start | Odds / Source | Probability | $10 paper position | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 44.5 | 1:00 PM ET | -115 Dimers / theScore Bet Source | Estimate 62.30% Break-even 53.49% Edge 8.81 pp | 10 units risk Win +8.70 units Estimated EV +1.65 units Moderate research | Lost · Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — Indianapolis Colts 22 −10.00 units |
| Rationale: NFL injury roundup lists Colts receivers Dulin and Slayton and Steelers receiver Pittman out; defensive absences also create countervailing scoring risk. The external model edge is 8.81 pp and remains unvalidated. This Under qualifies on its own price, not as a reaction to Saturday Overs. Estimated EV 1.65 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem. | |||||
| Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Jets ML | 1:00 PM ET | -133 Dimers public odds comparison (book not identified) Source | Estimate 60.00% Break-even 57.08% Edge 2.92 pp | 10 units risk Win +7.52 units Estimated EV +0.51 units Low research | Won · New York Jets 17 — Cleveland Browns 12 +7.52 units |
| Rationale: Browns defensive-line absences may favor Jets rushing; Jets RB Breece Hall and WR Adonai Mitchell are also out. The 2.92 pp external model edge is modest. Exact quote book and separate book timestamp are not exposed; this is a comparison-source paper lock. Estimated EV 0.51 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem. | |||||
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders Under 41.5 | 1:00 PM ET | -102 Dimers public odds comparison (book not identified) Source | Estimate 58.60% Break-even 50.50% Edge 8.10 pp | 10 units risk Win +9.80 units Estimated EV +1.61 units Moderate research | Lost · Washington Commanders 27 — New York Giants 27 −10.00 units |
| Rationale: Dimers estimates a 58.6% under probability against a 50.50% price break-even. Washington ruled out Stefon Diggs and listed Terry McLaurin questionable; the current forecast calls for rain during the game. New York and Washington also have defensive absences, so this is a moderate-confidence price edge rather than a guarantee. Estimated EV 1.61 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem. | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | 4:25 PM ET | -115 Dimers public odds comparison (book not identified) Source | Estimate 60.80% Break-even 53.49% Edge 7.31 pp | 10 units risk Win +8.70 units Estimated EV +1.37 units Moderate research | Won · Seattle Seahawks 29 — San Francisco 49ers 32 +8.70 units |
| Rationale: Dimers estimates a 60.8% cover probability against a 53.49% price break-even. San Francisco remains without Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk, while Seattle ruled out Zach Charbonnet and two defenders; Seattle confirmed Leonard Williams is available. The injury evidence is official and current, but the probability remains an unvalidated external estimate. Estimated EV 1.37 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem. | |||||
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers Los Angeles Dodgers ML | 8:00 PM ET | -104 Dimers model / FanDuel price reported by New York Post Source | Estimate 56.70% Break-even 50.98% Edge 5.72 pp | 10 units risk Win +9.62 units Estimated EV +1.12 units Moderate research | Lost · Milwaukee Brewers 2 — Los Angeles Dodgers 1 −10.00 units |
| Rationale: Dimers estimates a 56.7% Dodgers win probability against a 50.98% break-even rate at -104. MLB confirmed Tarik Skubal versus Jacob Misiorowski and published both starting lineups; Los Angeles added Justin Wrobleski to the NLCS roster and removed Hyeseong Kim. The estimate is external and unvalidated. Estimated EV 1.12 per $10 risk. Post-pick: MLB and ESPN reported Milwaukee won Game 1, 2–1, on October 11, 2026. The locked Dodgers moneyline therefore lost 10 units. One result does not establish model calibration or justify a strategy change. Adjustment: Strategy v1.0.1 unchanged. Preserve the locked selection, -104 price, probability and fixed 10-unit risk; review only with a larger verified sample. | |||||
NFL and MLB boards were refreshed for the later window. Official NFL inactive reports and MLB Game 1 starting lineups were reviewed. Retrieval and lock times are saved per pick; the Dodgers price uses the FanDuel quote reported at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Saturday Official Results — October 10 · 4–2 · +35.90 units
These are the 6 algorithm selections locked before the later user-directed expansion. IDs 128–141 are excluded from official performance but retained in the source audit log as a non-official intervention. All 6 official finals were independently checked at their original locked odds.
| Pick | Final | Locked odds | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Over 47.5 | Lost · Army Black Knights 20 — Tulane Green Wave 17 | -114 | -10.00 units |
| Rationale: External Dimers estimate 56.1% exceeds 53.27% price break-even by 2.83 percentage points; estimated profit 0.53 units per 10-unit risk. A run-heavy opponent can limit possessions; no independently confirmed injury or weather adjustment is available. Post-pick: Flawed probability estimate or matchup error under review: 37 combined points missed 47.5. The pregame note already identified Army possession risk; tempo causation is not verified by this final score. Shared exposure with Army -3.5 amplified the loss. Adjustment: Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses. | |||
| 🟢 Over 43.5 | Won · Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28 — Duke Blue Devils 25 | -114 | +8.77 units |
| Rationale: External Dimers estimate 58.6% exceeds 53.27% price break-even by 5.33 percentage points; estimated profit 1.00 units per 10-unit risk. The external estimate is unvalidated; pace, red-zone efficiency and late availability news can invalidate the projected edge. Post-pick: Ordinary variance / unvalidated estimate: 53 points cleared 43.5. One winning total does not validate the shared external totals model. Adjustment: Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses. | |||
| 🟢 Navy ML | Won · Navy Midshipmen 34 — Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26 | -122 | +8.20 units |
| Rationale: External Dimers estimate 58.1% exceeds 54.95% price break-even by 3.15 percentage points; estimated profit 0.57 units per 10-unit risk. Navy recently scored only nine against Air Force; do not treat the home favorite as a safe recovery bet. Post-pick: Ordinary variance / excessive correlation: Navy won by eight; Navy ML and -2 both won on the same result. Adjustment: Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses. | |||
| 🔴 Vancouver Canucks ML | Lost · New Jersey Devils 4 — Vancouver Canucks 1 | 240 | -10.00 units |
| Rationale: External Dimers estimate 34.1% exceeds 29.41% price break-even by 4.69 percentage points; estimated profit 1.59 units per 10-unit risk. New Jersey is the more likely winner. Starting-goalie confirmation was not available in the checked sources; this is a low-confidence model-price experiment, not a claim of lineup certainty. Post-pick: Ordinary variance remains plausible for a 34.1% underdog. A 4–1 loss also flags matchup and unconfirmed goalie inputs for review. Paired Canucks puck line produced two losses from one game. Adjustment: Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses. | |||
| 🟢 Kentucky ML | Won · Kentucky Wildcats 35 — LSU Tigers 34 | 295 | +29.50 units |
| Rationale: External Dimers estimate 28.4% exceeds 25.32% price break-even by 3.08 percentage points; estimated profit 1.22 units per 10-unit risk. The model expects Kentucky to lose most often. The payoff compensates only if the 28.4% estimate is accurate; no independent validation establishes that. Post-pick: Potential misleading win / favorable variance: a one-point Kentucky upset earned +29.50 despite a 28.4% pregame win estimate. The upset does not establish model calibration. Correlated Kentucky +8.5 also won. Adjustment: Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses. | |||
| 🟢 Over 47.5 | Won · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 32 — Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 31 | -106 | +9.43 units |
| Rationale: External Dimers estimate 55.4% exceeds 51.46% price break-even by 3.94 percentage points; estimated profit 0.77 units per 10-unit risk. Totals are sensitive to tempo and finishing drives. Team availability and weather remain incompletely verified. Post-pick: Ordinary variance / unvalidated estimate: 63 points cleared 47.5. This offsets losses but does not prove calibration. Adjustment: Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses. | |||
Improvement Trend Scorecard
Current / previous 7-day cohorts: 2026-10-06–2026-10-12 / 2026-09-29–2026-10-05. Current / previous 10-day cohorts: 2026-10-03–2026-10-12 / 2026-09-23–2026-10-02. Uses selection dates and settled bets; full settlement-date history is unavailable.
| Metric | 7-day current / prior | Direction | 10-day current / prior | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Settled win rate | 49.09% / 57.14% | Declining | 50.75% / 56.58% | Insufficient sample |
| Profit | −29.42 units / +56.89 units | Declining | −13.44 units / +83.50 units | Insufficient sample |
| ROI | -5.35% / 10.16% | Declining | -2.01% / 10.99% | Insufficient sample |
| Average estimated edge | 3.60% / 3.24% | Improving | 3.56% / 3.00% | Insufficient sample |
| Brier error (lower is better) | 0.2566 / 0.2414 | Declining | 0.2536 / 0.2435 | Insufficient sample |
| Closing-line value | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable / Unavailable | Insufficient sample |
| Maximum drawdown | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable / Unavailable | Insufficient sample |
7-day direction: Declining — win rate, profit, ROI and Brier forecast accuracy worsened; early warning without 10-day confirmation. 10-day direction: Insufficient sample. Average daily profit: +4.02 units over 7 days; +6.88 units over 10 days. Strategy weights remain v1.0.1. Favorable variance is not demonstrated process improvement.
Descriptive calibration gap: lifetime 2.53% (106 forecasts), 7-day 7.71% (41), 10-day 5.09% (60). Small samples and source changes limit interpretation. Closing-line value and chronological maximum drawdown remain unavailable.
Morning Audit — PARTIAL
10/11/2026, 4:24:51 PM ET. IDs, stakes, break-even/edge arithmetic, schedules, duplicate selections, locked odds, settlement totals and league totals including WNBA were reconciled. Today’s IDs: 142, 143, 145, 144, 146; 5 total picks today. All 6 official Saturday finals were reverified. IDs 128–141 are documented as excluded user-directed experiments; today’s existing locked IDs and selections were preserved; new ID 146 was appended. Production rendering, closing lines and older source provenance require post-publication verification as noted in the audit.
Updated Excel and PDF reports · Complete performance, trends and Edge Scores · Independent morning audit
Strategy log: October 11, v1.0.1 weights unchanged. Existing price and correlation gates enforced. paper bets only.