{
  "date": "2026-10-11",
  "updated": "2026-10-12T08:24:00.316Z",
  "audit": "PARTIAL",
  "auditTimestamp": "10/12/2026, 4:24:00 AM ET",
  "newUniquePicks": 1,
  "newUniqueIds": [
    146
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  "previousTotal": 131,
  "total": 146,
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  "wins": 77,
  "losses": 66,
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  "todayCard": [
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    146
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  "dailyRisk": 50,
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    "date": "2026-10-10",
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  "rankedCandidates": [
    {
      "id": 142,
      "rank": 1,
      "edgeScore": 8.81,
      "edge": 0.08811627906976749,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score equals estimated win probability minus American-odds break-even probability, in percentage points; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    },
    {
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      "rank": 2,
      "edgeScore": 8.1,
      "edge": 0.08104950495049501,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score equals estimated win probability minus American-odds break-even probability, in percentage points; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    },
    {
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      "edge": 0.07311627906976748,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score equals estimated win probability minus American-odds break-even probability, in percentage points; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "rank": 4,
      "edgeScore": 5.72,
      "edge": 0.05719607843137253,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score equals estimated win probability minus American-odds break-even probability, in percentage points; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
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      "edge": 0.029184549356223166,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score equals estimated win probability minus American-odds break-even probability, in percentage points; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    }
  ],
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": 142,
      "event": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers",
      "market": "Total",
      "selection": "Under 44.5",
      "odds": -115,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.623,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5348837209302325,
      "edge": 0.08811627906976749,
      "edgeScore": 8.81,
      "confidence": "Moderate research",
      "start": "2026-10-11T17:00Z",
      "eventId": "401872985",
      "source": "ESPN official pregame schedule; Dimers public comparison",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401872985/colts-steelers",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/nfl/best-bets",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:36.680Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": "2026-10-11T09:36:00Z",
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-11T09:36:00Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": -115,
      "line": 44.5,
      "possibleWinProfit": 8.695652173913043,
      "expectedProfit": 1.6473913043478254,
      "availabilityStatus": "Official NFL injury roundup reviewed, updated October 10 4:47 PM ET; final Sunday inactives not released at lock.",
      "injurySourceUrl": "https://fantasy-www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:36.680Z",
      "result": "Lost · Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — Indianapolis Colts 22",
      "profit": -10,
      "rationale": "NFL injury roundup lists Colts receivers Dulin and Slayton and Steelers receiver Pittman out; defensive absences also create countervailing scoring risk. The external model edge is 8.81 pp and remains unvalidated. This Under qualifies on its own price, not as a reaction to Saturday Overs. Estimated EV 1.65 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "event": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "Jets ML",
      "odds": -133,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.6,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5708154506437768,
      "edge": 0.029184549356223166,
      "edgeScore": 2.92,
      "confidence": "Low research",
      "start": "2026-10-11T17:00Z",
      "eventId": "401872983",
      "source": "ESPN official pregame schedule; Dimers public comparison",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401872983/browns-jets",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/nfl/news/cleveland-browns-vs-new-york-jets-prediction-week-5-2026-ac",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:36.680Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": "2026-10-11T10:41:00Z",
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-11T10:41:00Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": -133,
      "line": null,
      "possibleWinProfit": 7.518796992481203,
      "expectedProfit": 0.511278195488722,
      "availabilityStatus": "Official NFL injury roundup reviewed, updated October 10 4:47 PM ET; final Sunday inactives not released at lock.",
      "injurySourceUrl": "https://fantasy-www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:36.680Z",
      "result": "Won · New York Jets 17 — Cleveland Browns 12",
      "profit": 7.518796992481203,
      "rationale": "Browns defensive-line absences may favor Jets rushing; Jets RB Breece Hall and WR Adonai Mitchell are also out. The 2.92 pp external model edge is modest. Exact quote book and separate book timestamp are not exposed; this is a comparison-source paper lock. Estimated EV 0.51 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "event": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders",
      "market": "Total",
      "selection": "Under 41.5",
      "odds": -102,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.586,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.504950495049505,
      "edge": 0.08104950495049501,
      "edgeScore": 8.1,
      "confidence": "Moderate research",
      "start": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
      "eventId": "401872988",
      "source": "ESPN official schedule; Dimers current comparison; official NFL injury report; current Landover forecast",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401872988/giants-commanders",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/nfl/news/nfl-best-bets-10-11-2026-ac",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-11T13:04:41.961Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": "2026-10-11T10:32:00Z",
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-11T10:32:00Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": -102,
      "line": 41.5,
      "possibleWinProfit": 9.803921568627452,
      "expectedProfit": 1.6050980392156857,
      "availabilityStatus": "Official Week 5 injury report reviewed: Washington ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota and listed Terry McLaurin questionable; New York ruled out Chauncey Golston and Jason Pinnock. Final inactive lists were not yet released at lock.",
      "injurySourceUrl": "https://www.nfl.com/injuries/league/2026/reg5",
      "weatherSourceUrl": "https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/Landover+MD",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-11T13:04:41.961Z",
      "result": "Lost · Washington Commanders 27 — New York Giants 27",
      "profit": -10,
      "rationale": "Dimers estimates a 58.6% under probability against a 50.50% price break-even. Washington ruled out Stefon Diggs and listed Terry McLaurin questionable; the current forecast calls for rain during the game. New York and Washington also have defensive absences, so this is a moderate-confidence price edge rather than a guarantee. Estimated EV 1.61 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "event": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks",
      "market": "Spread",
      "selection": "San Francisco 49ers +3.5",
      "odds": -115,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.608,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5348837209302325,
      "edge": 0.07311627906976748,
      "edgeScore": 7.31,
      "confidence": "Moderate research",
      "start": "2026-10-11T20:25:00Z",
      "eventId": "401872992",
      "source": "ESPN live schedule; Dimers current comparison; official Seahawks injury report",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401872992/49ers-seahawks",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/nfl/predictions/2026_5_sea_sf",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:13.457Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": null,
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:13.457Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": -115,
      "line": 3.5,
      "possibleWinProfit": 8.695652173913043,
      "expectedProfit": 1.3669565217391302,
      "availabilityStatus": "Official Seahawks final injury report reviewed: Seattle ruled out Zach Charbonnet, Julian Neal and Chazz Surratt; San Francisco ruled out Nick Bosa, Kyle Juszczyk, Marques Sigle and James Thompson. Final inactive lists were not yet released at lock.",
      "injurySourceUrl": "https://www.seahawks.com/news/week-5-injury-report-seahawks-vs-49ers",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:13.457Z",
      "result": "Won · Seattle Seahawks 29 — San Francisco 49ers 32",
      "profit": 8.695652173913043,
      "rationale": "Dimers estimates a 60.8% cover probability against a 53.49% price break-even. San Francisco remains without Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk, while Seattle ruled out Zach Charbonnet and two defenders; Seattle confirmed Leonard Williams is available. The injury evidence is official and current, but the probability remains an unvalidated external estimate. Estimated EV 1.37 per $10 risk. Post-pick: final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "event": "Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "Los Angeles Dodgers ML",
      "odds": -104,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.567,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5098039215686274,
      "edge": 0.05719607843137253,
      "edgeScore": 5.72,
      "confidence": "Moderate research",
      "start": "2026-10-12T00:00:00Z",
      "eventId": "401908030",
      "source": "Official MLB Game 1 FAQ and starting-lineup page; Dimers current model; FanDuel price reported by New York Post",
      "url": "https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-brewers-nl-championship-series-game-1-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://nypost.com/2026/10/11/betting/dodgers-vs-brewers-odds-predictions-game-1-mlb-playoff-picks-best-bets-for-nlcs/",
      "modelSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/mlb/best-bets",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-11T19:00:00Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": "2026-10-11T19:00:00Z",
      "modelObservedAt": "2026-10-11T20:10:46.023Z",
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-11T20:10:46.023Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": -104,
      "possibleWinProfit": 9.615384615384615,
      "expectedProfit": 1.1219230769230757,
      "availabilityStatus": "Official MLB Game 1 page lists both starting pitchers and both starting lineups. The Brewers retained their NLDS roster; the Dodgers added Justin Wrobleski and removed Hyeseong Kim.",
      "injurySourceUrl": "https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-2026-nlcs-roster",
      "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-brewers-nl-championship-series-game-1-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-11T20:10:46.023Z",
      "result": "Lost · Milwaukee Brewers 2 — Los Angeles Dodgers 1",
      "profit": -10,
      "rationale": "Dimers estimates a 56.7% Dodgers win probability against a 50.98% break-even rate at -104. MLB confirmed Tarik Skubal versus Jacob Misiorowski and published both starting lineups; Los Angeles added Justin Wrobleski to the NLCS roster and removed Hyeseong Kim. The estimate is external and unvalidated. Estimated EV 1.12 per $10 risk. Post-pick: MLB and ESPN reported Milwaukee won Game 1, 2–1, on October 11, 2026. The locked Dodgers moneyline therefore lost 10 units. One result does not establish model calibration or justify a strategy change.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.1 unchanged. Preserve the locked selection, -104 price, probability and fixed 10-unit risk; review only with a larger verified sample."
    }
  ],
  "postmortems": [
    {
      "id": 122,
      "selection": "Over 47.5",
      "result": "Lost · Army Black Knights 20 — Tulane Green Wave 17",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate or matchup error under review: 37 combined points missed 47.5. The pregame note already identified Army possession risk; tempo causation is not verified by this final score. Shared exposure with Army -3.5 amplified the loss.",
      "adjustment": "Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses."
    },
    {
      "id": 123,
      "selection": "Over 43.5",
      "result": "Won · Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28 — Duke Blue Devils 25",
      "profit": 8.771929824561404,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance / unvalidated estimate: 53 points cleared 43.5. One winning total does not validate the shared external totals model.",
      "adjustment": "Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses."
    },
    {
      "id": 124,
      "selection": "Navy ML",
      "result": "Won · Navy Midshipmen 34 — Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26",
      "profit": 8.19672131147541,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance / excessive correlation: Navy won by eight; Navy ML and -2 both won on the same result.",
      "adjustment": "Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses."
    },
    {
      "id": 125,
      "selection": "Vancouver Canucks ML",
      "result": "Lost · New Jersey Devils 4 — Vancouver Canucks 1",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance remains plausible for a 34.1% underdog. A 4–1 loss also flags matchup and unconfirmed goalie inputs for review. Paired Canucks puck line produced two losses from one game.",
      "adjustment": "Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses."
    },
    {
      "id": 126,
      "selection": "Kentucky ML",
      "result": "Won · Kentucky Wildcats 35 — LSU Tigers 34",
      "profit": 29.5,
      "analysis": " Potential misleading win / favorable variance: a one-point Kentucky upset earned +29.50 despite a 28.4% pregame win estimate. The upset does not establish model calibration. Correlated Kentucky +8.5 also won.",
      "adjustment": "Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses."
    },
    {
      "id": 127,
      "selection": "Over 47.5",
      "result": "Won · Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 32 — Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 31",
      "profit": 9.433962264150944,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance / unvalidated estimate: 63 points cleared 47.5. This offsets losses but does not prove calibration.",
      "adjustment": "Weights unchanged. Preserve odds, probability and risk. Review repeated comparable results; apply existing price and correlation rules without chasing losses."
    },
    {
      "id": 142,
      "selection": "Under 44.5",
      "result": "Lost · Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — Indianapolis Colts 22",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 143,
      "selection": "Jets ML",
      "result": "Won · New York Jets 17 — Cleveland Browns 12",
      "profit": 7.518796992481203,
      "analysis": " final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 145,
      "selection": "Under 41.5",
      "result": "Lost · Washington Commanders 27 — New York Giants 27",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 144,
      "selection": "San Francisco 49ers +3.5",
      "result": "Won · Seattle Seahawks 29 — San Francisco 49ers 32",
      "profit": 8.695652173913043,
      "analysis": " final score verified; cause not yet reviewed. No causal inference from this result alone.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Awaiting evidence-based postmortem."
    },
    {
      "id": 146,
      "selection": "Los Angeles Dodgers ML",
      "result": "Lost · Milwaukee Brewers 2 — Los Angeles Dodgers 1",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " MLB and ESPN reported Milwaukee won Game 1, 2–1, on October 11, 2026. The locked Dodgers moneyline therefore lost 10 units. One result does not establish model calibration or justify a strategy change.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.1 unchanged. Preserve the locked selection, -104 price, probability and fixed 10-unit risk; review only with a larger verified sample."
    }
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  "leagueTotals": {
    "NCAA FBS": {
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      "settled": 75,
      "pending": 0,
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      "wins": 40,
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      "maxDrawdown": null
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    "NFL": {
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      "settled": 38,
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      "wins": 20,
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      "pushes": 1,
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    "NHL": {
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      "settled": 16,
      "pending": 0,
      "voids": 1,
      "wins": 7,
      "losses": 9,
      "pushes": 0,
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      "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2622164374999999,
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      "maxDrawdown": null
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  },
  "performance": {
    "bySport": {
      "Football": {
        "total": 113,
        "settled": 113,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 52,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
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        "profit": 59.98937366145205,
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      "Baseball": {
        "total": 13,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "profit": 31.516896832429957,
        "winRate": 0.6666666666666666,
        "roi": 0.2626408069369163
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      "Basketball": {
        "total": 3,
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        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 1,
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      "Hockey": {
        "total": 17,
        "settled": 16,
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        "losses": 9,
        "pushes": 0,
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    },
    "byLeague": {
      "NCAA FBS": {
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      "NFL": {
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      "MLB": {
        "total": 13,
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      "WNBA": {
        "total": 3,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 30,
        "profit": 7.565485362095533,
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      "NHL": {
        "total": 17,
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        "wins": 7,
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        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "risk": 160,
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    },
    "byMarket": {
      "Moneyline": {
        "total": 31,
        "settled": 31,
        "wins": 15,
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        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 310,
        "profit": 5.472919726063912,
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      "Total": {
        "total": 44,
        "settled": 43,
        "wins": 22,
        "losses": 20,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
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      "Spread": {
        "total": 71,
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        "wins": 40,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 700,
        "profit": 60.82691442544204,
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    },
    "byOddsBand": {
      "+100 to +200": {
        "total": 23,
        "settled": 23,
        "wins": 10,
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        "pending": 0,
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      "-150 to -101": {
        "total": 115,
        "settled": 114,
        "wins": 62,
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        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
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        "profit": 47.247864432086104,
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      "+201 to +350": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 2,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 40,
        "profit": 32.5,
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      "Below -150": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 3,
        "losses": 1,
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        "profit": 4.205639797818568,
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        "roi": 0.10514099494546421
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    },
    "byConfidence": {
      "Unrecorded": {
        "total": 86,
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      "Higher": {
        "total": 13,
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        "wins": 6,
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      "Medium": {
        "total": 22,
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      "Moderate research": {
        "total": 16,
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      "Low / higher upside": {
        "total": 2,
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      "Moderate / high price": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Moderate / correlated": {
        "total": 4,
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      "Low / marginal positive edge": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Low research": {
        "total": 1,
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    },
    "bySource": {
      "Recorded card": {
        "total": 30,
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      "FanDuel": {
        "total": 2,
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      "VegasInsider early Week 4 market": {
        "total": 10,
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      "Bovada / EVAnalytics current market": {
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      "Bovada current market": {
        "total": 6,
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      "BetMGM current market": {
        "total": 2,
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        "risk": 20,
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      "Leans.ai current market": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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      "VegasInsider best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "wins": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
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      "ScoresAndOdds best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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      "Action Network best price, Oct. 1": {
        "total": 10,
        "settled": 10,
        "wins": 4,
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        "risk": 100,
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      "FanDuel Research, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.803921568627452,
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      "Sportsgambler, updated Oct. 1 1:02 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "wins": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.474576271186441,
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      "Consensus / Statsalt, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 0,
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        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": 18.181818181818183,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
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      "Action Network, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.615384615384615,
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      "Action Network best market, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
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        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -0.7407407407407405,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.03703703703703702
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      "FanDuel Research, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
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        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
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        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "Action Network consensus, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.174311926605505,
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        "roi": 0.9174311926605505
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      "Consensus market, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
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        "wins": 0,
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        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -20,
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        "roi": -1
      },
      "FanDuel / consensus, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
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        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
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      "Leans.ai live odds, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 8,
        "settled": 8,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 3,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 70,
        "profit": 7.1856806639415325,
        "winRate": 0.5714285714285714,
        "roi": 0.10265258091345046
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      "Consensus live market, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 1,
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        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
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        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "Action Network live odds, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 1,
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        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "FanDuel, Oct. 5, 8:11 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 3,
        "settled": 3,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 30,
        "profit": 9.695652173913043,
        "winRate": 0.6666666666666666,
        "roi": 0.32318840579710145
      },
      "Caesars via AgentBets, Oct. 6, 1:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.3,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 1.03
      },
      "BetMGM via AgentBets, Oct. 5, 10:00 p.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 0,
        "profit": 0,
        "winRate": null,
        "roi": null
      },
      "Covers best available, Oct. 6, 8:35 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 8,
        "settled": 8,
        "wins": 5,
        "losses": 3,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 80,
        "profit": 17.98774878774879,
        "winRate": 0.625,
        "roi": 0.22484685984685987
      },
      "Bovada consensus, Oct. 7, 8:00 a.m. UTC": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 7.142857142857143,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.7142857142857143
      },
      "EVAnalytics consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 1:13 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "VegasInsider consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 0,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "risk": 0,
        "profit": 0,
        "winRate": null,
        "roi": null
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 12:43 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "SportsBet consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 5.9523809523809526,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.5952380952380952
      },
      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Pinnacle via AgentBets, updated Oct. 7, 6:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.849557522123893,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.8849557522123893
      },
      "FanDuel market, Oct. 7, 4:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.615384615384615,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9615384615384615
      },
      "numberFire / recorded research": {
        "total": 3,
        "settled": 3,
        "wins": 0,
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        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 30,
        "profit": -30,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "SportsCapping consensus, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -1.304347826086957,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.06521739130434785
      },
      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -0.9090909090909083,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.045454545454545414
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      "Dimers / recorded research": {
        "total": 30,
        "settled": 30,
        "wins": 14,
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        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 300,
        "profit": -26.14240121788275,
        "winRate": 0.4666666666666667,
        "roi": -0.0871413373929425
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    },
    "byStrategyVersion": {
      "Unrecorded": {
        "total": 86,
        "settled": 86,
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        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 850,
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        "winRate": 0.5647058823529412,
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      "v1.0 market + matchup": {
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        "profit": 8.695652173913043,
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        "roi": 0.8695652173913043
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      "v1.0 + numberFire": {
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        "risk": 10,
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      "v1.0 pitching + market": {
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      },
      "v1.0 pitching + price + line move": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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        "winRate": 1,
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      "v1.0 pitching + park + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "roi": null
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      "v1.0 pace + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "v1.0 form + total price": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
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      },
      "v1.0 efficiency + roster + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "wins": 1,
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        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.928571428571429,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.8928571428571429
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      "v1.0 form + roster + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "wins": 0,
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        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "v1.0 recent offense + price": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.25925925925926,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9259259259259259
      },
      "v1.0 defense + recent form": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.00900900900901,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9009009009009009
      },
      "v1.0 roster gap + price": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
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        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 11.7,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 1.17
      },
      "v1.0 recent scoring + lineup review": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "v1.0.1: market/price, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement": {
        "total": 10,
        "settled": 9,
        "wins": 5,
        "losses": 4,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "risk": 90,
        "profit": 0.6510893236556967,
        "winRate": 0.5555555555555556,
        "roi": 0.00723432581839663
      },
      "v1.0.1: price/value, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement": {
        "total": 37,
        "settled": 37,
        "wins": 16,
        "losses": 21,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 370,
        "profit": -58.35583995306061,
        "winRate": 0.43243243243243246,
        "roi": -0.15771848635962327
      }
    }
  },
  "trends": {
    "current7": {
      "start": "2026-10-06",
      "end": "2026-10-12",
      "previousStart": "2026-09-29",
      "previousEnd": "2026-10-05",
      "current": {
        "total": 57,
        "settled": 56,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "wins": 27,
        "losses": 28,
        "pushes": 1,
        "risk": 550,
        "profit": -29.417001841656134,
        "roi": -0.053485457893920244,
        "winRate": 0.4909090909090909,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03596436976718807,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.25659791868249093,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": -4.202428834522305
      },
      "previous": {
        "total": 57,
        "settled": 57,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "wins": 32,
        "losses": 24,
        "pushes": 1,
        "risk": 560,
        "profit": 56.89050607156079,
        "roi": 0.10159018941350141,
        "winRate": 0.5714285714285714,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.032426490664118506,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.24142357142857143,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": 8.127215153080114
      },
      "sampleStatus": "comparison available",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Declining",
        "profit": "Declining",
        "roi": "Declining",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Improving",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Declining",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Unavailable",
        "maxDrawdown": "Unavailable"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Mixed descriptive signals; no confirmed process improvement"
    },
    "current10": {
      "start": "2026-10-03",
      "end": "2026-10-12",
      "previousStart": "2026-09-23",
      "previousEnd": "2026-10-02",
      "current": {
        "total": 70,
        "settled": 69,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "wins": 34,
        "losses": 33,
        "pushes": 2,
        "risk": 670,
        "profit": -13.444759912892454,
        "roi": -0.02006680584013799,
        "winRate": 0.5074626865671642,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.035616848370803006,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2536178287692089,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": -1.3444759912892454
      },
      "previous": {
        "total": 76,
        "settled": 76,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "wins": 43,
        "losses": 33,
        "pushes": 0,
        "risk": 760,
        "profit": 83.49826414279715,
        "roi": 0.10986613702999626,
        "winRate": 0.5657894736842105,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.030009711701611524,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2435055535714286,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": 8.349826414279715
      },
      "sampleStatus": "insufficient sample",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Insufficient sample",
        "profit": "Insufficient sample",
        "roi": "Insufficient sample",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Insufficient sample",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Insufficient sample",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Insufficient sample",
        "maxDrawdown": "Insufficient sample"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Insufficient sample"
    }
  },
  "calibration": {
    "lifetime": {
      "sample": 123,
      "value": 0.059710626016260024,
      "method": "Ten fixed probability bins, width 0.10; weighted absolute forecast-vs-outcome gap. Small-sample descriptive estimate, not validated calibration."
    },
    "current7": {
      "sample": 55,
      "value": 0.13484376363636355,
      "method": "Ten fixed probability bins, width 0.10; weighted absolute forecast-vs-outcome gap. Small-sample descriptive estimate, not validated calibration."
    },
    "current10": {
      "sample": 60,
      "value": 0.05092654999999988,
      "method": "Weighted absolute gap in ten fixed probability bins; descriptive and sample-sensitive."
    },
    "note": "Brier error measures forecast error; fixed-bin gaps measure descriptive calibration. Neither establishes a proven model advantage."
  },
  "strategy": "v1.0.1 unchanged; up to 10 qualifying unique picks across daily runs",
  "strategyNote": "No weighting change, loss chasing or stake increase. Today’s 5 picks are independent games. Saturday’s official record remains limited to the six pre-intervention selections.",
  "method": "Screen approved game-level markets for an external probability above the price break-even, verify event/start and price source, and reject negative-edge prices. All selections use current published Dimers estimates; no independent superiority claim.",
  "unresolved": [
    "Mobile visual rendering and device interactions",
    "Every older final independently re-verified against fresh authoritative records",
    "Historical locked-price provenance and recorded-probability model validity",
    "Closing-line metrics: no verified closing prices",
    "Chronological maximum drawdown: missing complete settlement timestamps",
    "Live production forecast endpoint and scoreboard DOM readback"
  ],
  "disclaimer": "Results are informational; no result is guaranteed.",
  "notes": [
    "ROI denominator is settled win/loss stakes; pushes, voids and pending stakes are excluded.",
    "Rolling cohorts use selection dates and settled wagers. Complete settlement-date windows and chronological drawdown remain unavailable.",
    "Comparison refresh timestamps are recorded; exact sportsbook quote timestamps are retained when exposed."
  ],
  "checks": {
    "uniqueIds": true,
    "totalReconciliation": true,
    "recordReconciliation": true,
    "leagueReconciliation": true,
    "profitAtLockedOdds": true,
    "routesAndAssets": true,
    "mobileSourceCoverage": true,
    "previousTotalPlusNewUniqueIds": true,
    "immutableRecordedFields": true,
    "allPreviouslyPendingFinalsVerified": true,
    "reverifiedFinalsAtLockedOdds": true,
    "nativeSettlementPaginationComplete": true,
    "nativeSettlementsMatchLockedRecords": true,
    "apiHistoryHandlerAgainstCompleteNativeSnapshot": true,
    "proofSavedSnapshot": true,
    "resultsScorecardMath": true,
    "currentAndLastSelectionDates": true,
    "allHistoryAndDailySummaryCalculations": true,
    "currentResultsTitleSelectionDate": true,
    "lastResultsTitleSelectionDate": true,
    "infographicsChartTotals": true,
    "mainMenuMetricsAndButtonDates": true,
    "leagueRadarsIncludingWNBA": true,
    "fullHistoryReportSummary": true,
    "liveScoreFinalSummarySource": true,
    "liveLeadsNeverCountAsFinalSource": true,
    "liveEstimatesComplete": true,
    "liveEstimatesIntegrity": true
  },
  "sourceRefresh": {
    "NFLBoard": "2026-10-11T20:00:00Z",
    "Later49ersBoard": "2026-10-11T12:12:13.457Z",
    "LaterGiantsCommandersBoard": "2026-10-11T13:04:41.961Z",
    "MLBLineups": "2026-10-11T20:10:46.023Z",
    "DodgersPrice": "2026-10-11T19:00:00Z"
  },
  "versionLog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-11",
      "version": "v1.0.1",
      "change": "Existing daily limit and price/correlation gates enforced; weights unchanged",
      "evidence": "7-day early warning lacks a complete 10-day confirmation. No chase, stake increase or retrospective optimization."
    }
  ],
  "reverifiedFinals": 6,
  "historyCorrection": {
    "date": "2026-10-10",
    "officialIds": [
      122,
      123,
      124,
      125,
      126,
      127
    ],
    "excludedIds": [
      128,
      129,
      130,
      131,
      132,
      133,
      134,
      135,
      136,
      137,
      138,
      139,
      140,
      141
    ],
    "reason": "The official record was restored to the six algorithm selections locked before a user-directed expansion to 20 picks. The excluded experiment remains documented in the source audit log."
  }
}