{
  "date": "2026-10-15",
  "updated": "2026-10-15T17:11:13.498Z",
  "audit": "PARTIAL",
  "auditTimestamp": "10/15/2026, 1:11:13 PM ET",
  "newUniquePicks": 3,
  "newUniqueIds": [
    156,
    157,
    158
  ],
  "previousTotal": 155,
  "total": 158,
  "settled": 154,
  "wins": 81,
  "losses": 71,
  "pushes": 2,
  "pending": 3,
  "voids": 1,
  "risk": 1520,
  "profit": 62.36888884528932,
  "winRate": 0.5328947368421053,
  "roi": 0.04103216371400613,
  "winPct": 0.5328947368421053,
  "todayCard": [
    156,
    157,
    158
  ],
  "dailyRisk": 30,
  "dailyPendingRisk": 30,
  "dailyResults": {
    "total": 3,
    "settled": 0,
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "pushes": 0,
    "pending": 3,
    "voids": 0,
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    "winRate": null,
    "roi": null
  },
  "remainingSlots": 7,
  "newlySettledThisRun": 5,
  "priorResults": {
    "date": "2026-10-14",
    "total": 5,
    "settled": 5,
    "wins": 2,
    "losses": 3,
    "pushes": 0,
    "pending": 0,
    "voids": 0,
    "risk": 50,
    "profit": -8.7,
    "winRate": 0.4,
    "roi": -0.174
  },
  "rankedCandidates": [
    {
      "id": 157,
      "rank": 1,
      "edgeScore": 14.75,
      "edge": 0.14745454545454545,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score is the recorded estimate minus American-odds break-even probability; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    },
    {
      "id": 156,
      "rank": 2,
      "edgeScore": 13.4,
      "edge": 0.134,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score is the recorded estimate minus American-odds break-even probability; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    },
    {
      "id": 158,
      "rank": 3,
      "edgeScore": 3.72,
      "edge": 0.0371680672268907,
      "evidence": "Price Edge Score is the recorded estimate minus American-odds break-even probability; it is not a claimed accuracy score."
    }
  ],
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": 156,
      "event": "Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "Buffalo Sabres ML",
      "odds": 100,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.634,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5,
      "edge": 0.134,
      "confidence": "Moderate research / projected goalies",
      "start": "2026-10-15T23:00:00Z",
      "eventId": null,
      "source": "numberFire current model / FanDuel price / The Morning Puck projected goalies",
      "url": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/maple-leafs-vs-sabres-prediction-nhl-odds-and-best-bets-for-10-15-2026",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/maple-leafs-vs-sabres-prediction-nhl-odds-and-best-bets-for-10-15-2026",
      "modelSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/maple-leafs-vs-sabres-prediction-nhl-odds-and-best-bets-for-10-15-2026",
      "lineupSourceUrl": "https://themorningpuck.com/starting-goalies",
      "supportingSourceUrls": [
        "https://themorningpuck.com/starting-goalies"
      ],
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": null,
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "modelObservedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "modelSource": "External published probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": 100,
      "line": null,
      "possibleWinProfit": 10,
      "expectedProfit": 2.6799999999999997,
      "availabilityStatus": "Current projected goalies were available but not confirmed; no confirmed-goalie claim is made.",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "result": null,
      "profit": null,
      "rationale": "numberFire assigns Buffalo a 63.4% win probability while FanDuel lists +100, a 50.0% break-even price and a 13.4-point recorded edge. Both teams enter 3-3-1, and current goalie reporting lists Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Anthony Stolarz as likely rather than confirmed. The unusually large model-market gap and unconfirmed goalies are the principal risks. Estimated EV 2.68 units per $10 risk.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 unchanged. Fixed $10 hypothetical risk; the selection independently clears the 2.0-point game-market gate. No quota filling, loss chasing or stake increase."
    },
    {
      "id": 157,
      "event": "New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "New York Rangers ML",
      "odds": 120,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.602,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.45454545454545453,
      "edge": 0.14745454545454545,
      "confidence": "Moderate research / Garand confirmed; Daws projected",
      "start": "2026-10-15T23:00:00Z",
      "eventId": null,
      "source": "numberFire current model / FanDuel price / NHL and Rangers game-day reporting",
      "url": "https://www.nhl.com/rangers/",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/devils-vs-rangers-prediction-nhl-odds-and-best-bets-for-10-15-2026",
      "modelSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/devils-vs-rangers-prediction-nhl-odds-and-best-bets-for-10-15-2026",
      "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/10-15-2026",
      "supportingSourceUrls": [
        "https://www.nhl.com/devils/news/topic/game-day/njd-vs-nyr/10-15-2026/2026020113/",
        "https://themorningpuck.com/starting-goalies",
        "https://www.nhl.com/rangers/",
        "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/10-15-2026"
      ],
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": null,
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "modelObservedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "modelSource": "External published probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": 120,
      "line": null,
      "possibleWinProfit": 12,
      "expectedProfit": 3.2439999999999998,
      "availabilityStatus": "Official Rangers scheduling identifies the October 15 game as Rangers at Devils. Dylan Garand is confirmed for New York; Nico Daws was reported likely for New Jersey at the correction check. The Rangers are the road team. The locked selection, odds, probability and stake are unchanged.",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-15T17:05:42.720Z",
      "result": null,
      "profit": null,
      "rationale": "numberFire assigns the Rangers a 60.2% win probability while FanDuel lists +120, a 45.45% break-even price and a 14.75-point recorded edge. New York enters 6-2, while current goalie reporting confirms Dylan Garand for the Rangers and lists Nico Daws as likely for the Devils. The Rangers’ road setting, Jack Hughes’ strong history against New York and the unusually large model-market disagreement are the main risks. Estimated EV 3.24 units per $10 risk.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 unchanged. Fixed $10 hypothetical risk; the selection independently clears the 2.0-point game-market gate. No quota filling, loss chasing or stake increase."
    },
    {
      "id": 158,
      "event": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "Seattle Seahawks ML",
      "odds": -138,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.617,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5798319327731093,
      "edge": 0.0371680672268907,
      "confidence": "Higher confidence / current injury report",
      "start": "2026-10-16T00:15:00Z",
      "eventId": null,
      "source": "numberFire current model / FanDuel price via AgentBets / Reuters availability report",
      "url": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/seahawks-vs-broncos-prediction-nfl-odds-and-best-bets-for-thursday-night-football-week-6",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/seahawks-vs-broncos-prediction-nfl-odds-and-best-bets-for-thursday-night-football-week-6",
      "modelSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/seahawks-vs-broncos-prediction-nfl-odds-and-best-bets-for-thursday-night-football-week-6",
      "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.reuters.com/sports/nfl/seahawks-broncos-aim-maintain-momentum-thursday-night-2026-10-14/",
      "supportingSourceUrls": [
        "https://www.agentbets.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks-vs-denver-broncos-odds-betting-lines-best-prices",
        "https://www.reuters.com/sports/nfl/seahawks-broncos-aim-maintain-momentum-thursday-night-2026-10-14/"
      ],
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "oddsPublishedAt": null,
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "modelObservedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "modelSource": "External published probability; not independently validated",
      "americanOdds": -138,
      "line": null,
      "possibleWinProfit": 7.246376811594203,
      "expectedProfit": 0.641014492753623,
      "availabilityStatus": "Current injury reporting was incorporated.",
      "scheduleVerifiedAt": "2026-10-15T11:16:03.342Z",
      "result": null,
      "profit": null,
      "rationale": "numberFire gives Seattle a 61.7% win probability; FanDuel’s current -138 price requires 57.98%, leaving a 3.72-point recorded edge. Both teams are 3-2. Seattle cleared Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Leonard Williams, while Denver ruled out Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga; Seattle also has multiple absences, so the road setting and availability tradeoff remain meaningful risks. Estimated EV 0.64 units per $10 risk.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 unchanged. Fixed $10 hypothetical risk; the selection independently clears the 2.0-point game-market gate. No quota filling, loss chasing or stake increase."
    }
  ],
  "postmortems": [
    {
      "id": 151,
      "selection": "FC Cincinnati ML",
      "result": "Lost · FC Cincinnati 2 — New England Revolution 3",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate / matchup error. Cincinnati lost 3-2 despite being assigned a 56.4% win probability. The estimate over-weighted home form and recent Cincinnati scoring while under-weighting New England’s ability to create enough high-value chances. One match remains ordinary outcome variance, but the miss belongs in the MLS calibration sample.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 remains unchanged. Keep MLS moneylines at fixed $10 risk and require more draw-aware 1X2 calibration evidence before changing league weights."
    },
    {
      "id": 152,
      "selection": "St. Louis City SC ML",
      "result": "Lost · St. Louis City SC 0 — Vancouver Whitecaps 0",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate / soccer draw risk. St. Louis remained unbeaten but the three-way moneyline lost on a 0-0 draw. The pregame case supported avoiding defeat more strongly than winning outright, so the 48.6% win estimate was too aggressive for the 1X2 market.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 remains unchanged. Flag three-way soccer moneylines for explicit win-versus-draw decomposition; do not convert unbeaten/form evidence into win probability without a larger calibrated sample."
    },
    {
      "id": 153,
      "selection": "FC Dallas ML",
      "result": "Won · FC Dallas 1 — Seattle Sounders 0",
      "profit": 10.5,
      "analysis": " Potential misleading win / ordinary variance. Dallas won 1-0 at locked +105, but a one-goal result does not validate the 53.0% estimate or erase Seattle’s strong pregame form. Treat this as a correctly priced winning ticket, not proof that the model found a durable league edge.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 remains unchanged. Do not increase MLS weight from one narrow win; preserve the locked price and fixed $10 risk."
    },
    {
      "id": 154,
      "selection": "Over 7.5",
      "result": "Won · Los Angeles Dodgers 2 — Milwaukee Brewers 6",
      "profit": 10.8,
      "analysis": " Potential misleading win / ordinary variance. The Over 7.5 won 8-2 at locked +108, clearing by 2.5 runs, but one win does not reverse the totals segment’s negative long-run record. The confirmed-lineup, starter and bullpen process was better than the recent losing totals, while the result still contains normal scoring variance.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 remains unchanged. Keep the 3.0-point totals gate and contextual corroboration; do not relax the filter after one win."
    },
    {
      "id": 155,
      "selection": "Colorado Rapids ML",
      "result": "Lost · Colorado Rapids 2 — Minnesota United 2",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate / soccer draw risk. Colorado led the model at 52.7% but the 2-2 draw lost the three-way moneyline. Along with St. Louis, this result shows that same-day form and home-field evidence did not sufficiently distinguish an outright win from a draw.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy v1.0.2 remains unchanged because two same-day draw losses are not a sufficient independent sample for a material rule change. Continue the fixed stake and explicitly monitor MLS 1X2 draw calibration before adding weight."
    }
  ],
  "leagueTotals": {
    "NCAA FBS": {
      "total": 75,
      "settled": 75,
      "pending": 0,
      "voids": 0,
      "wins": 40,
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      "winRate": 0.5333333333333333,
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      "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2488842117622728,
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      "maxDrawdown": null
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    "NFL": {
      "total": 40,
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      "wins": 20,
      "losses": 18,
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      "profit": 8.045443323321912,
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      "winRate": 0.5263157894736842,
      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03374992427358332,
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    "MLB": {
      "total": 15,
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      "wins": 9,
      "losses": 5,
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      "profit": 32.31689683242996,
      "roi": 0.23083497737449973,
      "winRate": 0.6428571428571429,
      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.029228137263240177,
      "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.24021451785714287,
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    "WNBA": {
      "total": 3,
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      "roi": 0.2521828454031844,
      "winRate": 0.6666666666666666,
      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03636551623707588,
      "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.21894466666666668,
      "averageClosingLineValue": null,
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    "NHL": {
      "total": 21,
      "settled": 18,
      "pending": 2,
      "voids": 1,
      "wins": 9,
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      "pushes": 0,
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      "roi": -0.04446037228160133,
      "winRate": 0.5,
      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03376572714754337,
      "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2593053333333332,
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      "maxDrawdown": null
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    "MLS": {
      "total": 4,
      "settled": 4,
      "pending": 0,
      "voids": 0,
      "wins": 1,
      "losses": 3,
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      "risk": 40,
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      "roi": -0.4875,
      "winRate": 0.25,
      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.05713673199695876,
      "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.26323025,
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  },
  "performance": {
    "bySport": {
      "Football": {
        "total": 115,
        "settled": 114,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 53,
        "pushes": 1,
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      "Baseball": {
        "total": 15,
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      "Basketball": {
        "total": 3,
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        "wins": 2,
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      "Hockey": {
        "total": 21,
        "settled": 18,
        "wins": 9,
        "losses": 9,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 2,
        "voids": 1,
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        "winRate": 0.5,
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      "Soccer": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 3,
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        "risk": 40,
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    },
    "byLeague": {
      "NCAA FBS": {
        "total": 75,
        "settled": 75,
        "wins": 40,
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      "NFL": {
        "total": 40,
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      "MLB": {
        "total": 15,
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      "WNBA": {
        "total": 3,
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      "NHL": {
        "total": 21,
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        "wins": 9,
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      "MLS": {
        "total": 4,
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    },
    "byMarket": {
      "Moneyline": {
        "total": 40,
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        "wins": 18,
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        "profit": 6.988304341448526,
        "winRate": 0.4864864864864865,
        "roi": 0.018887309030941962
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      "Total": {
        "total": 47,
        "settled": 46,
        "wins": 23,
        "losses": 22,
        "pushes": 1,
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      "Spread": {
        "total": 71,
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        "wins": 40,
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    },
    "byOddsBand": {
      "+100 to +200": {
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      "-150 to -101": {
        "total": 119,
        "settled": 117,
        "wins": 63,
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      "+201 to +350": {
        "total": 4,
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        "risk": 40,
        "profit": 32.5,
        "winRate": 0.5,
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      },
      "Below -150": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 3,
        "losses": 1,
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        "profit": 4.205639797818568,
        "winRate": 0.75,
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    },
    "byConfidence": {
      "Unrecorded": {
        "total": 86,
        "settled": 86,
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      "Higher": {
        "total": 13,
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      "Medium": {
        "total": 22,
        "settled": 21,
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      "Moderate research": {
        "total": 18,
        "settled": 18,
        "wins": 9,
        "losses": 9,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 180,
        "profit": -11.458387960185282,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.06365771088991824
      },
      "Low / higher upside": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": 19.5,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": 0.975
      },
      "Moderate / high price": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 2.6666666666666665,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.26666666666666666
      },
      "Moderate / correlated": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 2,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 40,
        "profit": -1.6498316498316488,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.04124579124579122
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      "Low / marginal positive edge": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Low research": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 7.518796992481203,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.7518796992481203
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      "Moderate research / tightened totals gate": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 2,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -20,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Moderate research / current price and team context": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
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        "roi": -1
      },
      "Moderate research / current price and matchup corroboration": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Moderate research / current price with explicit form downside": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.5,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 1.05
      },
      "Moderate research / tightened totals gate with confirmed lineups": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.8,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 1.08
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      "Moderate research / late price and lineup update": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
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        "roi": -1
      },
      "Moderate research / projected goalies": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 0,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 1,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 0,
        "profit": 0,
        "winRate": null,
        "roi": null
      },
      "Moderate research / Garand confirmed; Daws projected": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 0,
        "wins": 0,
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        "pushes": 0,
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      },
      "Higher confidence / current injury report": {
        "total": 1,
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    },
    "bySource": {
      "Recorded card": {
        "total": 30,
        "settled": 30,
        "wins": 17,
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        "risk": 300,
        "profit": 43.49000000000001,
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      "FanDuel": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -0.9100000000000001,
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      "VegasInsider early Week 4 market": {
        "total": 10,
        "settled": 10,
        "wins": 5,
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        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 100,
        "profit": -1.6965046888320536,
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      "Bovada / EVAnalytics current market": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
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        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
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        "roi": -1
      },
      "Bovada current market": {
        "total": 6,
        "settled": 6,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 2,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 60,
        "profit": 15.248447204968944,
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      "BetMGM current market": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -0.6542056074766354,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.032710280373831765
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      "Leans.ai current market": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "VegasInsider best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "ScoresAndOdds best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 7.3,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.73
      },
      "Action Network best price, Oct. 1": {
        "total": 10,
        "settled": 10,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 6,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 100,
        "profit": -21.06147186147186,
        "winRate": 0.4,
        "roi": -0.2106147186147186
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      "FanDuel Research, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.803921568627452,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9803921568627452
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      "Sportsgambler, updated Oct. 1 1:02 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.474576271186441,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.8474576271186441
      },
      "Consensus / Statsalt, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": 18.181818181818183,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "Action Network, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.615384615384615,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9615384615384615
      },
      "Action Network best market, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -0.7407407407407405,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.03703703703703702
      },
      "FanDuel Research, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "Action Network consensus, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.174311926605505,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9174311926605505
      },
      "Consensus market, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 2,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -20,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "FanDuel / consensus, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "Leans.ai live odds, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 8,
        "settled": 8,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 3,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 70,
        "profit": 7.1856806639415325,
        "winRate": 0.5714285714285714,
        "roi": 0.10265258091345046
      },
      "Consensus live market, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "Action Network live odds, Oct. 3": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "FanDuel, Oct. 5, 8:11 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 3,
        "settled": 3,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 30,
        "profit": 9.695652173913043,
        "winRate": 0.6666666666666666,
        "roi": 0.32318840579710145
      },
      "Caesars via AgentBets, Oct. 6, 1:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.3,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 1.03
      },
      "BetMGM via AgentBets, Oct. 5, 10:00 p.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 1,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 0,
        "profit": 0,
        "winRate": null,
        "roi": null
      },
      "Covers best available, Oct. 6, 8:35 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 8,
        "settled": 8,
        "wins": 5,
        "losses": 3,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 80,
        "profit": 17.98774878774879,
        "winRate": 0.625,
        "roi": 0.22484685984685987
      },
      "Bovada consensus, Oct. 7, 8:00 a.m. UTC": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 7.142857142857143,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.7142857142857143
      },
      "EVAnalytics consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9090909090909092
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 1:13 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "VegasInsider consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 0,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "risk": 0,
        "profit": 0,
        "winRate": null,
        "roi": null
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 12:43 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "SportsBet consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 5.9523809523809526,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.5952380952380952
      },
      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Pinnacle via AgentBets, updated Oct. 7, 6:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.849557522123893,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.8849557522123893
      },
      "FanDuel market, Oct. 7, 4:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.615384615384615,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9615384615384615
      },
      "FanDuel Research / numberFire, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "SportsCapping consensus, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -1.304347826086957,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.06521739130434785
      },
      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 2,
        "settled": 2,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 20,
        "profit": -0.9090909090909083,
        "winRate": 0.5,
        "roi": -0.045454545454545414
      },
      "Caesars via Dimers, updated Oct. 7, 4:15 p.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Dimers / Caesars, updated Oct. 8, 2:20 p.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Dimers / FanDuel; model update 2026-10-09T10:32:00Z; observed 2026-10-09 07:12 AM ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Dimers / Caesars; model update 2026-10-09T10:02:00Z; observed 2026-10-09 07:12 AM ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.523809523809524,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9523809523809523
      },
      "Dimers / FanDuel; model update 2026-10-09 01:32 PM ET; observed 2026-10-09 02:04 PM ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.771929824561404,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.8771929824561404
      },
      "FanDuel Research / numberFire; observed 2026-10-09 03:04 PM ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "FanDuel Research / numberFire; observed 2026-10-09 03:57 PM ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Dimers / BetRivers": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 3,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 40,
        "profit": 37.705892088712346,
        "winRate": 0.75,
        "roi": 0.9426473022178087
      },
      "Dimers / DraftKings": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.19672131147541,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.8196721311475409
      },
      "Dimers / bet365": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "Dimers / Dimers comparison": {
        "total": 11,
        "settled": 11,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 7,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 110,
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        "winRate": 0.36363636363636365,
        "roi": -0.3595382065364912
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      "Dimers / BetMGM": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
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      },
      "Dimers / theScore Bet": {
        "total": 3,
        "settled": 3,
        "wins": 2,
        "losses": 1,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
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        "profit": 2.993999586178358,
        "winRate": 0.6666666666666666,
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      "Dimers public odds comparison (book not identified)": {
        "total": 4,
        "settled": 4,
        "wins": 3,
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        "risk": 40,
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      "Dimers model / FanDuel price reported by New York Post": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Dimers model / DraftKings price reported by OregonLive": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Dimers current model / FanDuel price": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Dimers current model / VegasInsider current sportsbook comparison": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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      "Dimers current MLS model / Fanatics current price / FC Cincinnati match preview": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 0,
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      },
      "Dimers current MLS model / Fanatics current price / MLS match preview": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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      },
      "Dimers current MLS model / Fanatics current price / FC Dallas and Squawka previews": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.5,
        "winRate": 1,
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      },
      "Dimers current MLB model and comparison price / MLB official lineups / True Blue LA Game 3 lineup and matchup analysis": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.8,
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      "Dimers current MLS model and Fanatics price / Sportsgambler current matchup, lineup, injury and movement review": {
        "total": 1,
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        "wins": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
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      },
      "numberFire current model / FanDuel price / The Morning Puck projected goalies": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 0,
        "wins": 0,
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      },
      "numberFire current model / FanDuel price / NHL and Rangers game-day reporting": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 0,
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        "winRate": null,
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      },
      "numberFire current model / FanDuel price via AgentBets / Reuters availability report": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 0,
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    },
    "byStrategyVersion": {
      "Unrecorded": {
        "total": 86,
        "settled": 86,
        "wins": 48,
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      "v1.0 market + matchup": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 8.695652173913043,
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      "v1.0 + numberFire": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 11,
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      "v1.0 pitching + market": {
        "total": 1,
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      "v1.0 pitching + price + line move": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.3,
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      },
      "v1.0 pitching + park + price": {
        "total": 1,
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      },
      "v1.0 pace + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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      "v1.0 form + total price": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
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        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.090909090909092,
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      "v1.0 efficiency + roster + price": {
        "total": 1,
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      "v1.0 form + roster + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
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      },
      "v1.0 recent offense + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "wins": 1,
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        "pending": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.25925925925926,
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      "v1.0 defense + recent form": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 9.00900900900901,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 0.9009009009009009
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      "v1.0 roster gap + price": {
        "total": 1,
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        "wins": 1,
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        "pushes": 0,
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        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 11.7,
        "winRate": 1,
        "roi": 1.17
      },
      "v1.0 recent scoring + lineup review": {
        "total": 1,
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        "pushes": 0,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
        "winRate": 0,
        "roi": -1
      },
      "v1.0.1: market/price, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement": {
        "total": 10,
        "settled": 9,
        "wins": 5,
        "losses": 4,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "risk": 90,
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        "winRate": 0.5555555555555556,
        "roi": 0.00723432581839663
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      "v1.0.1: price/value, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement": {
        "total": 37,
        "settled": 37,
        "wins": 16,
        "losses": 21,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 370,
        "profit": -58.35583995306061,
        "winRate": 0.43243243243243246,
        "roi": -0.15771848635962327
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      "v1.0.2: price/value, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement; totals require at least 3.0 pp edge plus contextual corroboration": {
        "total": 12,
        "settled": 9,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 5,
        "pushes": 0,
        "pending": 3,
        "voids": 0,
        "risk": 90,
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        "winRate": 0.4444444444444444,
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    }
  },
  "trends": {
    "current7": {
      "start": "2026-10-09",
      "end": "2026-10-15",
      "previousStart": "2026-10-02",
      "previousEnd": "2026-10-08",
      "current": {
        "total": 42,
        "settled": 39,
        "pending": 3,
        "voids": 0,
        "wins": 18,
        "losses": 21,
        "pushes": 0,
        "risk": 390,
        "profit": -33.827016602498134,
        "roi": -0.08673594000640547,
        "winRate": 0.46153846153846156,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.04067410994545829,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.25563020512820517,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": -4.832430943214019
      },
      "previous": {
        "total": 50,
        "settled": 49,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "wins": 27,
        "losses": 20,
        "pushes": 2,
        "risk": 470,
        "profit": 47.11023346987602,
        "roi": 0.10023453929760856,
        "winRate": 0.574468085106383,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.032793396783334997,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2491950325007872,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": 6.730033352839432
      },
      "sampleStatus": "comparison available",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Declining",
        "profit": "Declining",
        "roi": "Declining",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Improving",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Declining",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Unavailable",
        "maxDrawdown": "Unavailable"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Mixed descriptive signals; no confirmed process improvement."
    },
    "current10": {
      "start": "2026-10-06",
      "end": "2026-10-15",
      "previousStart": "2026-09-26",
      "previousEnd": "2026-10-05",
      "current": {
        "total": 69,
        "settled": 65,
        "pending": 3,
        "voids": 1,
        "wins": 31,
        "losses": 33,
        "pushes": 1,
        "risk": 640,
        "profit": -37.101617226271514,
        "roi": -0.05797127691604924,
        "winRate": 0.484375,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.0370804147033791,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.25775953949276564,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": -3.7101617226271513
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      "previous": {
        "total": 79,
        "settled": 79,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "wins": 42,
        "losses": 36,
        "pushes": 1,
        "risk": 780,
        "profit": 33.1805060715608,
        "roi": 0.04253911034815487,
        "winRate": 0.5384615384615384,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.030784082404537984,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.24287970588235303,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": 3.31805060715608
      },
      "sampleStatus": "comparison available",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Declining",
        "profit": "Declining",
        "roi": "Declining",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Improving",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Declining",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Unavailable",
        "maxDrawdown": "Unavailable"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Mixed descriptive signals; no confirmed process improvement."
    }
  },
  "calibration": {
    "lifetime": {
      "sample": 132,
      "value": 0.06184399242424235,
      "method": "Weighted absolute gap in ten fixed probability bins; descriptive and sample-sensitive."
    },
    "current7": {
      "sample": 39,
      "value": 0.15343589743589747,
      "method": "Weighted absolute gap in ten fixed probability bins; descriptive and sample-sensitive."
    },
    "current10": {
      "sample": 64,
      "value": 0.12867823437499998,
      "method": "Weighted absolute gap in ten fixed probability bins; descriptive and sample-sensitive."
    },
    "note": "Brier error measures forecast error; fixed-bin gaps are descriptive. Neither proves an edge."
  },
  "strategy": "v1.0.2",
  "strategyNote": "No weighting, threshold or stake change. Two MLS moneyline losses on draws flag a draw-calibration review, but one same-day cluster is too small and correlated for a material change. The 3.0-point totals gate, 2.0-point base gate and fixed $10 stakes remain.",
  "method": "Screen approved game-level straight markets for price-adjusted value, current schedule and availability context; require at least a 2.0-point edge, with the 3.0-point totals gate. Conflicting or incomplete evidence is rejected. No independent superiority claim.",
  "disclaimer": "Pretend wagers only. No wager was placed. Results are not guaranteed.",
  "notes": [
    "ROI denominator is settled win/loss stakes; pushes, voids and pending stakes are excluded.",
    "Rolling cohorts use selection dates because complete settlement timestamps are unavailable.",
    "Three picks cleared every current gate. MLB markets and a high-upside NHL side were rejected or deferred; no pick was added to fill a quota."
  ],
  "checks": {
    "uniqueIds": true,
    "totalReconciliation": true,
    "recordReconciliation": true,
    "leagueReconciliation": true,
    "profitAtLockedOdds": true,
    "routesAndAssets": true,
    "mobileSourceCoverage": true,
    "evidence": "unavailable"
  },
  "versionLog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-15",
      "version": "v1.0.2",
      "change": "No weighting, threshold or stake change.",
      "evidence": "Two same-day MLS draw losses are a review flag, not sufficient independent evidence for retuning."
    }
  ]
}