Tuesday, October 13, 2026 — Picks and Results
Lifetime: 79–68–2 · 53.74% wins · +71.07 units profit · 4.83% ROI.
150 total = 149 settled + 0 pending + 1 void. Wagered win/loss risk: 1,470 units; refunded pushes and voids are excluded. Pending risk: 0 units. 2 recorded picks on 2026-10-13.
Results refreshed 10/14/2026, 4:09:43 AM ET. Strategy v1.0.2 unchanged during this refresh.
Tuesday Picks — October 13
2 qualifying straight bets. 8 slots remain open because other current prices failed the edge gate or lacked adequate model support. No quota was forced.
| Game / Pick | Start | Odds / Source | Probability | $10 pretend position | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays Over 6.5 | 8:00 PM ET | -121 Dimers current model / VegasInsider current sportsbook comparison Source | Estimate 58.90% Break-even 54.75% Edge 4.15 pp | 10 units risk Win +8.26 units Estimated EV +0.76 units Moderate research / tightened totals gate | Lost · Tampa Bay Rays 3 — Cleveland Guardians 1 −10.00 units |
| Rationale: Dimers lists Over 6.5 at 58.9%, while the currently available -121 price requires 54.75%, a 4.15-point edge that clears the 3.0-point totals gate. MLB confirms both lineups and Parker Messick against Freddy Peralta. Cleveland has scored 25 runs in three road playoff games, and Tampa Bay's bullpen allowed five runs after the sixth inning in Game 1, corroborating the low-number Over; the strong starting-pitching matchup remains the main downside. Estimated EV 0.76 units per $10 risk. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result. | |||||
| Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks Boston Bruins ML | 11:00 PM ET | -104 Dimers current model / FanDuel price Source | Estimate 53.20% Break-even 50.98% Edge 2.22 pp | 10 units risk Win +9.62 units Estimated EV +0.44 units Moderate research | Won · San Jose Sharks 3 — Boston Bruins 6 +9.62 units |
| Rationale: Dimers lists Boston at a 53.2% win probability while FanDuel lists Bruins -104, above the 50.98% break-even rate by 2.22 percentage points. A separate matchup analysis also backs Boston moneyline, but starting-goaltender and late injury confirmation remain material risks. Estimated EV 0.44 units per $10 risk. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score. Adjustment: Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result. | |||||
Monday Results — October 12 · 1–1 · +1.40 units
| Pick | Final | Locked odds | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Ottawa Senators ML | Won · New Jersey Devils 1 — Ottawa Senators 4 | +114 | +11.40 units |
| Rationale: Dimers lists Ottawa at +114 with a conservative 49.7% win estimate, above the 46.73% break-even rate. Separate public models also favored Ottawa, but the locked probability remains the lower Dimers figure. Goaltender confirmation remains a material pregame risk. Estimated EV 0.64 units per $10 risk. Post-pick: Potential misleading win / ordinary variance. Ottawa won 4-1 at +114, so the favorable price converted into an 11.40-unit profit. One underdog win does not validate the external 49.7% estimate or justify increasing NHL weights. Adjustment: Strategy v1.0.2 remains unchanged. Preserve the original price, probability and fixed $10 risk; require repeated NHL evidence before changing weights. | |||
| 🔴 Under 54.5 | Lost · Los Angeles Rams 34 — Buffalo Bills 37 | -102 | -10.00 units |
| Rationale: Independent score verification: Los Angeles Rams 34, Buffalo Bills 37 (overtime), so the locked Under 54.5 lost by 16.5 points. Post-pick: Flawed probability estimate / matchup-volatility miss. Buffalo and Los Angeles scored 71 points; 35 fourth-quarter points plus three overtime points exposed offensive tail risk that the 53.5% Under estimate did not capture. Lifetime totals are now 22-21 and -6.25 units across 43 settled bets, still below expectation given their recorded edges. Adjustment: Strategy v1.0.2 remains unchanged because this is its first settled total and one result is insufficient to retune again. Continue the 3.0-point totals gate plus contextual corroboration, fixed $10 stakes and no loss chasing. | |||
Improvement Trend Scorecard
Current / previous 7-day cohorts: 2026-10-08–2026-10-14 / 2026-10-01–2026-10-07. Current / previous 10-day cohorts: 2026-10-05–2026-10-14 / 2026-09-25–2026-10-04. Uses selection dates and settled bets; full settlement-date history is unavailable.
| Metric | 7-day current / prior | Direction | 10-day current / prior | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Settled win rate | 43.90% / 59.62% | Declining | 50.00% / 56.47% | Declining |
| Profit | −57.34 units / +76.54 units | Declining | −18.71 units / +89.77 units | Declining |
| ROI | -13.99% / 14.72% | Declining | -3.02% / 10.56% | Declining |
| Average estimated edge | 4.03% / 3.38% | Improving | 3.52% / 3.09% | Improving |
| Brier error (lower is better) | 0.2628 / 0.2419 | Declining | 0.2571 / 0.2430 | Declining |
| Closing-line value | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Maximum drawdown | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable |
7-day: Declining — win rate, profit, ROI and Brier forecast error worsened despite higher recorded edge. 10-day: Insufficient sample — the prior comparison window begins before complete ledger history. Favorable variance is not treated as process improvement. Closing-line value and chronological maximum drawdown remain unavailable.
Strategy v1.0.2 — unchanged
The stricter totals gate remains in force: at least 3.0 percentage points of estimated edge plus current contextual corroboration. Stakes remain fixed at $10; spreads and moneylines retain v1.0.1 rules. Monday was 1–1; the first settled total under the new rule lost, but one post-change observation is insufficient evidence for another material change.
Morning Audit — PARTIAL
10/13/2026, 7:03:02 PM ET. IDs, stakes, schedules, break-even/edge arithmetic, duplicate selections, locked odds, settlement totals and league totals including WNBA were reconciled in source. Current production readback follows publication; closing lines and complete settlement chronology remain unavailable.
Updated Excel and PDF reports · Complete performance details · Independent audit
Pretend wagers only. No wager was placed; no outcome is guaranteed.