{
  "date": "2026-10-09",
  "updated": "2026-10-10T08:09:22.237Z",
  "audit": "PARTIAL",
  "auditTimestamp": "10/10/2026, 4:16:14 AM ET",
  "newUniquePicks": 5,
  "previousTotal": 116,
  "total": 121,
  "settled": 120,
  "wins": 65,
  "losses": 53,
  "pushes": 2,
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  "risk": 1180,
  "profit": 84.49164479615837,
  "winRate": 0.5508474576271186,
  "roi": 0.07160308881030371,
  "winPct": 0.5508474576271186,
  "todayCard": [
    117,
    118,
    119,
    120,
    121
  ],
  "dailyRisk": 50,
  "dailyPendingRisk": 0,
  "dailyResults": {
    "total": 5,
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  "remainingSlots": 5,
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  "priorResults": {
    "date": "2026-10-08",
    "total": 7,
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  "rankedCandidates": [
    {
      "id": 121,
      "rank": 1,
      "edgeScore": 76,
      "edge": 0.06816806722689073,
      "evidence": "Edge Score uses the documented 100-point value/evidence/price/availability rubric; probability estimates are external and unvalidated."
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "rank": 2,
      "edgeScore": 74,
      "edge": 0.063049504950495,
      "evidence": "Edge Score uses the documented 100-point value/evidence/price/availability rubric; probability estimates are external and unvalidated."
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "rank": 3,
      "edgeScore": 63,
      "edge": 0.04828971962616824,
      "evidence": "Edge Score uses the documented 100-point value/evidence/price/availability rubric; probability estimates are external and unvalidated."
    },
    {
      "id": 117,
      "rank": 4,
      "edgeScore": 56,
      "edge": 0.03680487804878052,
      "evidence": "Edge Score uses the documented 100-point value/evidence/price/availability rubric; probability estimates are external and unvalidated."
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "rank": 5,
      "edgeScore": 45,
      "edge": 0.020804878048780506,
      "evidence": "Edge Score uses the documented 100-point value/evidence/price/availability rubric; probability estimates are external and unvalidated."
    }
  ],
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": 117,
      "event": "Wyoming Cowboys at San José State Spartans",
      "market": "Total",
      "selection": "Over 42.5",
      "odds": -105,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.549,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5121951219512195,
      "edge": 0.03680487804878052,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "start": "2026-10-10T01:00:00Z",
      "eventId": "401864519",
      "source": "ESPN pregame scoreboard + Dimers",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401864519",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/cfb/news/college-football-best-bets-10-09-2026-ac",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-09T11:12:28.458417+00:00",
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-09T10:32:00Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external pregame model; not independently validated by Captain Sparkles",
      "americanOdds": -105,
      "line": 42.5,
      "possibleWinProfit": 9.523809523809524,
      "expectedProfit": 0.7185714285714289,
      "result": "Lost · San José State Spartans 13 — Wyoming Cowboys 16",
      "profit": -10,
      "rationale": "Confidence: Medium. External Dimers estimate is 54.9% for over 42.5, above the 51.22% break-even at -105. SJSU passing production supports the offensive case, but Wyoming pace and defensive efficiency can keep it below the total. Price sensitivity and model uncertainty remain material; this is not a validated Captain Sparkles model. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "event": "Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars",
      "market": "Spread",
      "selection": "BYU -10.5",
      "odds": -105,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.533,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5121951219512195,
      "edge": 0.020804878048780506,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "start": "2026-10-10T02:15:00Z",
      "eventId": "401856826",
      "source": "ESPN pregame scoreboard + Dimers",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401856826",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/cfb/predictions/2026_6_byu_isu",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-09T11:12:28.458417+00:00",
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-09T10:02:00Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external pregame model; not independently validated by Captain Sparkles",
      "americanOdds": -105,
      "line": -10.5,
      "possibleWinProfit": 9.523809523809524,
      "expectedProfit": 0.406190476190476,
      "result": "Won · BYU Cougars 24 — Iowa State Cyclones 10",
      "profit": 9.523809523809524,
      "rationale": "Confidence: Medium. External Dimers cover estimate is 53.3%, above the 51.22% break-even at -105. BYU has the home matchup advantage, but known LJ Martin and Andrew Gentry absences temper confidence; no claim that all injury effects are captured. Use the current odds widget, not the older +100 text. A late Iowa State score could erase a cover. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "event": "Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies",
      "market": "Total",
      "selection": "Over 40.5",
      "odds": -114,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.581,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5327102803738317,
      "edge": 0.04828971962616824,
      "confidence": "Medium",
      "start": "2026-10-10T01:00:00Z",
      "eventId": "401858487",
      "source": "ESPN pregame scoreboard + Dimers",
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401858487/iowa-washington",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.dimers.com/cfb/news/college-football-best-bets-10-09-2026-ac",
      "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.reuters.com/sports/report-iowa-qb-jeremy-hecklinski-start-vs-washington--flm-2026-10-09/",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-09T18:04:06.000Z",
      "modelUpdatedAt": "2026-10-09T17:32:00.000Z",
      "modelSource": "Dimers external pregame model; not independently validated by Captain Sparkles",
      "americanOdds": -114,
      "line": 40.5,
      "possibleWinProfit": 8.771929824561404,
      "expectedProfit": 0.9064912280701751,
      "result": "Won · Washington Huskies 24 — Iowa Hawkeyes 41",
      "profit": 8.771929824561404,
      "rationale": "Confidence: Medium. Dimers’ 1:32 p.m. ET update gives over 40.5 a 58.1% probability versus 53.27% break-even at -114. Iowa officially named Jeremy Hecklinski for his first collegiate start after Hank Brown’s shoulder injury, while the market fell from 41/41.5 to 40.5. Independent previews skew lower, so quarterback uncertainty and a low-total game keep this medium rather than high confidence. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "event": "Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "Pittsburgh Penguins ML",
      "odds": -102,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.568,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.504950495049505,
      "edge": 0.063049504950495,
      "confidence": "Higher",
      "start": "2026-10-09T23:00:00Z",
      "eventId": "2026020068",
      "source": "NHL official schedule/projected lineups + FanDuel Research",
      "url": "https://www.nhl.com/news/pittsburgh-penguins-columbus-blue-jackets-game-preview-october-9-2026",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/blue-jackets-vs-penguins-prediction-nhl-odds-10-9-2026",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-09T19:04:37.000Z",
      "modelUpdatedAt": null,
      "modelSource": "numberFire external pregame model via FanDuel Research; exact model update time not supplied; not independently validated by Captain Sparkles",
      "americanOdds": -102,
      "line": null,
      "possibleWinProfit": 9.803921568627452,
      "expectedProfit": 1.2486274509803916,
      "result": "Lost · Columbus Blue Jackets 3 — Pittsburgh Penguins 2",
      "profit": -10,
      "rationale": "Confidence: Higher. numberFire gives Pittsburgh a 56.8% win probability versus 50.50% break-even at -102. NHL projected lineups show Bryan Rust back on Sidney Crosby’s line after Rust scored in his season debut. Columbus is rested at home, and the estimate is not independently validated, so goalie and early-season variance remain material. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 121,
      "event": "Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings",
      "market": "Moneyline",
      "selection": "Detroit Red Wings ML",
      "odds": -138,
      "risk": 10,
      "estimatedWinProbability": 0.648,
      "impliedBreakEven": 0.5798319327731093,
      "edge": 0.06816806722689073,
      "confidence": "Higher",
      "start": "2026-10-09T23:00:00Z",
      "eventId": "2026020066",
      "source": "NHL official schedule/projected lineups + FanDuel Research",
      "url": "https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-kraken-detroit-red-wings-game-preview-october-9-2026",
      "oddsSourceUrl": "https://www.fanduel.com/research/red-wings-vs-kraken-prediction-nhl-odds-10-9-2026",
      "oddsObservedAt": "2026-10-09T19:57:38.000Z",
      "modelUpdatedAt": null,
      "modelSource": "numberFire external pregame model via FanDuel Research; exact model update time not supplied; not independently validated by Captain Sparkles",
      "americanOdds": -138,
      "line": null,
      "possibleWinProfit": 7.246376811594203,
      "expectedProfit": 1.1756521739130443,
      "result": "Lost · Detroit Red Wings 3 — Seattle Kraken 6",
      "profit": -10,
      "rationale": "Confidence: Higher. numberFire gives Detroit a 64.8% win probability versus 57.98% break-even at -138. NHL projected lineups confirm Dylan Larkin between Viktor Arvidsson and Lucas Raymond, John Gibson starting, and Seattle defenseman Ryan Lindgren on injured reserve. Detroit is home, while Seattle begins a five-game road trip. Early-season and goaltending variance remain material. Post-pick: final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    }
  ],
  "postmortems": [
    {
      "id": 110,
      "selection": "Arkansas State ML",
      "result": "Lost · Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 — South Alabama Jaguars 56",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Excessive correlation: this moneyline and pick 116 both depended on Arkansas State in the same 49-56 defeat. Combined loss was $20. The final alone cannot establish a bad price or injury error.",
      "adjustment": "No rule or weight change. Keep shared-game exposure explicit; review correlated pairs across a larger sample."
    },
    {
      "id": 111,
      "selection": "Missouri State +1.5",
      "result": "Lost · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34 — Missouri State Bears 13",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate / matchup error are review hypotheses: Missouri State lost 13-34, well outside the recorded close-game forecast. The score does not identify the cause; injury and closing-price evidence is incomplete.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged; compare forecast errors across repeated matchups before changing weights."
    },
    {
      "id": 112,
      "selection": "Dallas Cowboys -8.5",
      "result": "Lost · Dallas Cowboys 16 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Flawed probability estimate / matchup error are review hypotheses: Dallas lost 16-24 despite the recorded availability-based favorite rationale. Known absences did not ensure a cover. There is no evidence here of ignored news. Correlated with under pick 113.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Review the effect of injury-based forecasts across multiple games; no loss-driven reweighting."
    },
    {
      "id": 113,
      "selection": "Under 47.5",
      "result": "Won · Dallas Cowboys 16 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24",
      "profit": 9.090909090909092,
      "analysis": " Potential misleading win: the under won with 40 points, but the correlated Dallas spread lost. One low-scoring outcome does not validate the original injury mechanism or independently prove an edge. Ordinary variance remains plausible.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged; count this as a paid win, not proof that the forecast mechanism was correct."
    },
    {
      "id": 114,
      "selection": "UTSA -6.5",
      "result": "Won · UTSA Roadrunners 31 — South Florida Bulls 24",
      "profit": 8.695652173913043,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance: UTSA won 31-24 and covered -6.5 by only half a point. A narrow cover gives little evidence that the estimated edge was reliable. Closing-line value is unverified.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Retain the locked win and review price/calibration only with adequate samples."
    },
    {
      "id": 115,
      "selection": "St. Louis Blues ML",
      "result": "Lost · St. Louis Blues 2 — San Jose Sharks 3",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Ordinary variance: St. Louis lost 2-3 in overtime. A one-goal final alone does not diagnose a bad price; goalie and trustworthy closing-price evidence are unavailable.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged; no immediate NHL weight change from one close loss."
    },
    {
      "id": 116,
      "selection": "Arkansas State -3",
      "result": "Lost · Arkansas State Red Wolves 49 — South Alabama Jaguars 56",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " Excessive correlation: Arkansas State -3 lost in the same 49-56 game as moneyline pick 110. The pair lost $20 together. Recorded movement did not guarantee value.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. Review shared-game correlation and price evidence over repeated cases, preserving both locked records."
    },
    {
      "id": 120,
      "selection": "Pittsburgh Penguins ML",
      "result": "Lost · Columbus Blue Jackets 3 — Pittsburgh Penguins 2",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 121,
      "selection": "Detroit Red Wings ML",
      "result": "Lost · Detroit Red Wings 3 — Seattle Kraken 6",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 117,
      "selection": "Over 42.5",
      "result": "Lost · San José State Spartans 13 — Wyoming Cowboys 16",
      "profit": -10,
      "analysis": " final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 118,
      "selection": "BYU -10.5",
      "result": "Won · BYU Cougars 24 — Iowa State Cyclones 10",
      "profit": 9.523809523809524,
      "analysis": " final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    },
    {
      "id": 119,
      "selection": "Over 40.5",
      "result": "Won · Washington Huskies 24 — Iowa Hawkeyes 41",
      "profit": 8.771929824561404,
      "analysis": " final result saved from ESPN final scoreboard. Classification: ordinary variance is a provisional default; price, probability and matchup causes need review, not inferred from the score.",
      "adjustment": "Strategy unchanged. No weighting change based on one result."
    }
  ],
  "leagueTotals": {
    "NCAA FBS": {
      "total": 59,
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      "roi": 0.06032291467280751,
      "winRate": 0.5423728813559322,
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      "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.24643634992115387,
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    "NFL": {
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      "roi": 0.06615452774826565,
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      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.029845027331558863,
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      "wins": 8,
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    "WNBA": {
      "total": 3,
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      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03636551623707588,
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    "NHL": {
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      "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03274916816643229,
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  "performance": {
    "bySport": {
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      "Baseball": {
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      "Hockey": {
        "total": 13,
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    "byLeague": {
      "NCAA FBS": {
        "total": 59,
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      "NFL": {
        "total": 34,
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      "MLB": {
        "total": 12,
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      "WNBA": {
        "total": 3,
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      "NHL": {
        "total": 13,
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    },
    "byMarket": {
      "Moneyline": {
        "total": 25,
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        "risk": 250,
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      "Total": {
        "total": 32,
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        "wins": 19,
        "losses": 11,
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      "Spread": {
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    "byOddsBand": {
      "+100 to +200": {
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      "VegasInsider early Week 4 market": {
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      "Bovada / EVAnalytics current market": {
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      "Bovada current market": {
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      "BetMGM current market": {
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      "Leans.ai current market": {
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      "VegasInsider best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
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      "ScoresAndOdds best available, 9:00 a.m. ET": {
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      "Action Network best price, Oct. 1": {
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      "FanDuel Research, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Sportsgambler, updated Oct. 1 1:02 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Consensus / Statsalt, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
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      "Action Network, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Action Network best market, Oct. 2": {
        "total": 2,
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      "FanDuel Research, Oct. 2": {
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      "Action Network consensus, Oct. 2": {
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      "Consensus market, Oct. 2": {
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      "FanDuel / consensus, Oct. 2": {
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      "Leans.ai live odds, Oct. 3": {
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      "Consensus live market, Oct. 3": {
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      "Action Network live odds, Oct. 3": {
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      "FanDuel, Oct. 5, 8:11 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 3,
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        "risk": 30,
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      "Caesars via AgentBets, Oct. 6, 1:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": 10.3,
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      "BetMGM via AgentBets, Oct. 5, 10:00 p.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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      "Covers best available, Oct. 6, 8:35 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 8,
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        "risk": 80,
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      "Bovada consensus, Oct. 7, 8:00 a.m. UTC": {
        "total": 1,
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        "profit": 7.142857142857143,
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      "EVAnalytics consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 1:13 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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      },
      "VegasInsider consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, Oct. 7, 12:43 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
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      },
      "SportsBet consensus, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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        "risk": 10,
        "profit": -10,
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        "roi": -1
      },
      "DraftKings via BALLDONTLIE, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
        "wins": 1,
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        "profit": 5.9523809523809526,
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      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 7, 8:55 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
        "settled": 1,
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      "Pinnacle via AgentBets, updated Oct. 7, 6:00 a.m. ET": {
        "total": 1,
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      "FanDuel market, Oct. 7, 4:00 a.m. ET": {
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      "numberFire / recorded research": {
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        "risk": 30,
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      "SportsCapping consensus, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
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      "FanDuel Research, accessed Oct. 8, 9:15 a.m. ET": {
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      "Dimers / recorded research": {
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    },
    "byStrategyVersion": {
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      "v1.0 market + matchup": {
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      "v1.0 + numberFire": {
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      "v1.0 pitching + market": {
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      "v1.0 pitching + price + line move": {
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      "v1.0 pitching + park + price": {
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      "v1.0 pace + price": {
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      "v1.0 form + total price": {
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      "v1.0 efficiency + roster + price": {
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      "v1.0 recent offense + price": {
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      "v1.0 roster gap + price": {
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      "v1.0.1: market/price, matchup, availability, rest/travel, conditions and movement": {
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  },
  "trends": {
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      "end": "2026-10-10",
      "previousStart": "2026-09-27",
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        "pushes": 1,
        "risk": 330,
        "profit": -5.283209101489396,
        "roi": -0.016009724549967866,
        "winRate": 0.5151515151515151,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03362281167819255,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2632445614405151,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": -0.7547441573556279
      },
      "previous": {
        "total": 66,
        "settled": 66,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "wins": 37,
        "losses": 28,
        "pushes": 1,
        "risk": 650,
        "profit": 65.35485389764776,
        "roi": 0.10054592907330424,
        "winRate": 0.5692307692307692,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.030939087948522077,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2429747846153847,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": 9.336407699663965
      },
      "sampleStatus": "comparison available",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Declining",
        "profit": "Declining",
        "roi": "Declining",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Improving",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Declining",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Unavailable",
        "maxDrawdown": "Unavailable"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Mixed descriptive signals; no confirmed process improvement"
    },
    "current10": {
      "start": "2026-10-01",
      "end": "2026-10-10",
      "previousStart": "2026-09-21",
      "previousEnd": "2026-09-30",
      "current": {
        "total": 67,
        "settled": 66,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 1,
        "wins": 35,
        "losses": 29,
        "pushes": 2,
        "risk": 640,
        "profit": 32.62299879658899,
        "roi": 0.05097343561967029,
        "winRate": 0.546875,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.03639520795358054,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.2515354144927656,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": 3.2622998796588987
      },
      "previous": {
        "total": 54,
        "settled": 54,
        "pending": 0,
        "voids": 0,
        "wins": 30,
        "losses": 24,
        "pushes": 0,
        "risk": 540,
        "profit": 51.86864599956937,
        "roi": 0.09605304814735068,
        "winRate": 0.5555555555555556,
        "averageExpectedEdge": 0.023031519903667252,
        "probabilityCalibrationError": 0.24653426470588236,
        "averageClosingLineValue": null,
        "maxDrawdown": null,
        "averageDailyProfit": 5.1868645999569365
      },
      "sampleStatus": "insufficient sample",
      "direction": {
        "winRate": "Insufficient sample",
        "profit": "Insufficient sample",
        "roi": "Insufficient sample",
        "averageExpectedEdge": "Insufficient sample",
        "probabilityCalibrationError": "Insufficient sample",
        "averageClosingLineValue": "Insufficient sample",
        "maxDrawdown": "Insufficient sample"
      },
      "overallDirection": "Insufficient sample"
    }
  },
  "calibration": {
    "lifetime": {
      "sample": 98,
      "value": 0.021677622448979555,
      "method": "Ten fixed probability bins, width 0.10; weighted absolute forecast-vs-outcome gap. Small-sample descriptive estimate, not validated calibration."
    },
    "current7": {
      "sample": 33,
      "value": 0.07876990909090892,
      "method": "Ten fixed probability bins, width 0.10; weighted absolute forecast-vs-outcome gap. Small-sample descriptive estimate, not validated calibration."
    },
    "note": "Brier error is forecast accuracy, not calibration. Both external and earlier research estimates are unvalidated; null historic probabilities are excluded."
  },
  "strategy": "v1.0.1 unchanged",
  "strategyNote": "No weighting or selection-rule change. No chasing, no bigger stake. 5 slots remain open; higher-return quotas were not forced.",
  "method": "Screen approved game-level markets for price-adjusted value, availability and duplicate exposure. Today uses explicit external Dimers and numberFire probability estimates; no independent superiority claim.",
  "disclaimer": "Pretend wagers only. No wager was placed.",
  "notes": [
    "Rolling numbers are selection-date cohorts containing only settled wagers. Complete settlement-date windows are unavailable.",
    "Lifetime results remain visible; short-term positive ROI does not prove an edge."
  ],
  "checks": {
    "uniqueIds": true,
    "totalReconciliation": true,
    "recordReconciliation": true,
    "leagueReconciliation": true,
    "profitAtLockedOdds": true,
    "routesAndAssets": true,
    "mobileSourceCoverage": true,
    "previousTotalPlusNewUniqueIds": true,
    "immutableRecordedFields": true,
    "allPreviouslyPendingFinalsVerified": true,
    "reverifiedFinalsAtLockedOdds": true,
    "nativeSettlementsComplete": true,
    "nativeSettlementsMatchLockedRecords": true,
    "apiHistoryHandlerAgainstCompleteNativeSnapshot": true,
    "proofSavedSnapshot": true,
    "resultsScorecardMath": true,
    "currentAndLastSelectionDates": true,
    "allHistoryAndDailySummaryCalculations": true,
    "currentResultsTitleSelectionDate": true,
    "lastResultsTitleSelectionDate": true,
    "infographicsChartTotals": true,
    "mainMenuMetricsAndButtonDates": true,
    "leagueRadarsIncludingWNBA": true,
    "fullHistoryReportSummary": true,
    "liveScoreFinalSummarySource": true,
    "liveLeadsNeverCountAsFinalSource": true,
    "liveEstimatesComplete": true,
    "liveEstimatesIntegrity": true
  },
  "unresolved": [
    "Direct production /api/history readback unavailable: unauthenticated HTTP 403",
    "Desktop/mobile visual rendering and device interactions",
    "Every older final independently re-verified against fresh authoritative records",
    "Historical locked-price provenance and recorded-probability model validity",
    "Closing-line metrics: no verified closing prices",
    "Chronological maximum drawdown: missing complete settlement timestamps",
    "Live production forecast endpoint and scoreboard DOM readback"
  ]
}